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Friday, October 30, 2026

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CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins drove 46% of segment earnings.

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Deliveries from a teetering on insolvency Lucid is the savior for $UBER? ill take the under 0, 100 or 500 lucid AVs for Uber will not change the incumbency problem for UBER. They will now have to share the market of ride share, and ultimately last mile delivery that they currently dominate with Waymo, Tesla, Zoom (Amazon) in addition to many other players. These are well financed players that can use their mobility solution as part of a broader consumer bundle (not uberone, but incorporated into Prime). Removing the cost of drivers in the equation will dramatically lower the cost and likely the gross profit dollars available to Uber in a now hyper competitive market with companies that dwarf their capital base to run them out with subsidies, bundling and marketing (the same tactics uber used a decade ago to squeeze out smaller players). Their advantage of mindshare currently will be eroded by price and Uber does not control their own tech (bad for their economic model v competitors), is behind and will remain behind in terms of tech due to their inability to fund AI/AV at the same level as their new competitors. The concept Uber will win from fragmentation of AVs and being the app consolidator is going to be very difficult to play out. The regulatory hurdles, and costs of being 6 months behind and almost as safe at a higher price is not going to be a collection of vehicles attractive to users overtime, nor will their privellaged position as the app you open with little consideration to book a ride. And in an agent world, you wont pull up an app you'll ask book me the cheapest ride to the airport (and Uber wont win that box as discussed, app mindshare and learned behavior is meaningless) Uber won't be able to invest or subsidize their rides to stay relevant with Waymo/Tesla/Amazon for very long. Uber and their management team missed the boat (ironically by winning short term profits and street fanfare in cutting all of their AV investments several years ago) and the risk is not they stay in second and you melt the ice cube of cash flows here, this is existential like the sony walkman when the iPod arrived. So keep hoping for Lucid and the Saudis to come, it won't matter in the end. There is a reason it has underperformed and now trades in line with Software (recent move lines up with squeeze in SMH).
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Cerebras is a taxi. NVIDIA runs the buses. Almost every confusion about $CBRS begins with reviewing the wrong vehicle. We just published Part 1 of our Cerebras deep dive: → Why wafer-scale SRAM excels at low-batch decode → Why $NVDA becomes the cheaper token factory at high concurrency → Why Cerebras was built for training—but found its future in inference → Why the two architectures are increasingly complementary, not substitutes Our conclusion: Cerebras is mostly a buy over the next 2–3 years—but demand for premium-speed inference will decide the case. The full high-level report is live. 👇 https://t.co/awUwxPUSHI
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$TGT continues to run post earnings now at 17x next year before considering net debt load with earnings expected to shrink next year on less than 3% growth Tough weekend too. ATF with 1.8m members (teachers union) announced a boycott for back to school of Target last week and today are having to make public comments about a racially insensitive clown costume….. might seem on the margin but prior issues with pride and other campaigns were a key contributor to TGTs foot traffic problems

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks
SAP · long

Sap Se

SAP shares are down 45% since February 2025 as AI disruption fears create a long thesis on its risk-reward.

SAP $271B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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