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Wednesday, October 28, 2026

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@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

On EV to year-end ARR, Boost Run $BRUN now trades below CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. At $8.89/share, $BRUN’s EV is $989.7M. That’s 2.5x its $400M target for year-end ARR, down from 5.4x at the $22.93 price in my August 16 update. EV is market cap plus debt and lease liabilities, less unrestricted cash, using October 16 closes and June 30 balance sheets ($BRUN’s cash is pro forma for the warrant exercises). ARR is the midpoint of each company’s year-end 2026 target, which is $18.5-19.5B for CoreWeave, $7-9B for Nebius, $400M for $BRUN, and more than $4B for $IREN. At 2.5x, $BRUN trades below all three peers, including $IREN at 3.2x. A reasonable range for $BRUN is 2.5-5.0x, from where it trades today to just under the midpoint of CoreWeave’s 4.2x and Nebius’s 5.9x. I use the peers’ median rather than their average, since Nebius’s 5.9x skews the average higher. Nebius also owns more than 75% of its contracted power, while $BRUN owns no data centers (a different model, not a weakness).
@convequity

Convequity on X

A confirmed Anthropic IPO would lower the odds that Broadcom $AVGO ever pays on its backstop of about $42 billion of senior debt owed by the vehicle that leases Google TPUs to Anthropic. A separate financing vehicle borrows the money, buys the TPUs and leases them to Anthropic, and Anthropic's lease payments cover that vehicle's debt. If Anthropic can't keep paying, Broadcom has agreed to cover part of the lenders' losses on about $42 billion of that senior debt. The support is there if Anthropic goes bust or falls into serious difficulty. It is not a promise to repay the entire amount. An IPO does not change the dollar size of that exposure. It changes the chance Broadcom has to pay. Up to $100 billion of new equity gives Anthropic more room to keep meeting the lease, so the vehicle is more likely to keep servicing its debt, and Broadcom is less likely to be called. A failed listing would raise that chance. In our view, confirmation of the listing is a modest positive for AVGO. The obligation stays. A confirmed listing makes it less likely to be called, and that shrinks the overhang.

Investor Letters

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Danaher’s robotics era

Danaher’s new CEO paired a Q3 beat and raised EPS outlook with a 2027 4%-5% organic-growth starting point, while pitching AI-enabled…

DHR $163B
Best Anchor Stocks 1 click

Meta Earnings, Muse and the Frontier, Musebook

Meta’s earnings hinge on whether investors back Zuckerberg’s Muse vision and the compute spending required to build it.

META $1.6T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 1 click

ORCL Update

Oracle rose about 12% intraday on October 28, 2026 as AI infrastructure and cloud-demand sentiment improved and credit-spread concerns…

ORCL $438B
Cestrian Capital Research 2 clicks

Anthropic Deep Dive

Anthropic’s $80.7 billion first-half loss was mostly fair-value marks, while $16.3 billion revenue and compute economics showed a $974…

AMZN $2.6T
CV's Substack 7 clicks

My Last GFL Update - Hopefully

GFL’s take-private structure hinges on BC Partners rolling 60% of its stake to preserve debt portability under the 40% permitted-holder…

GFL $16B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

Right-Sizing Memory

Micron’s AI memory demand depends on workload-specific accelerator designs that shift bits among HBM, GDDR and LPDDR, changing wafer…

MU $1.1TNVDA $5.2T
Chipstrat 4 clicks

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