Farmer on X
@finphysnerd I don't think that's short breadth unless your longs are mega caps. Short breadth would be like long $SPY short $RSP.
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SPY
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$654B Market cap · 2026-05-05
Serenity on X
Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations). Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities. If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement). With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".
Fajasy on X
The $VIX closed at 14.87 on September 25, while the S&P 500's $SPY realized volatility over the past month was 10.8. That 4.1-point gap is the premium option buyers pay over what the index has actually done, and it's the newest row in the volatility section of my macro dashboard. The other volatility rows (VIX, the MOVE index for Treasury volatility, the VIX term structure, and SKEW) all live inside the options market, while this one checks option prices against the index's actual moves. A wide gap means protection is expensive relative to recent moves. A negative gap means the market is moving more than options priced in, which is what a selloff in progress looks like. I added it because a VIX of 15 means something different when the S&P 500 is moving 10% annualized than when it's moving 20%. The gap is near its 5-year average of 3.3 after swinging from -1.2 in early July to 8.4 by late July, 0.6 in mid-August, and 6.7 on September 11. Stocks look calm next to bonds right now. The VIX sits at the 23rd percentile of its 5-year range, while the MOVE index jumped from 80.6 to 96.0 in the week to September 25.
Myles on X
Ngl I'm the most bulled up I've been in a while here. Not bullish the entire market and $SPY, but bullish stuff like breadth, $RSP, low vol stuff. Breadth has crashed, sentiment is in the toilet, and October is historically pretty strong seasonality wise. https://t.co/Q3nWJ8IpAN
Serenity on X
People really need to stop thinking about 5% yields over 10 years or 30 years. Even the inflation of my $SUBWAY sandwich has gone up like 12% a year. Today it was like $20 after tax, when it used to be like $5… 12 years ago. The best way to keep up with inflation of the things that matter, like Sandwiches, is equities like $SPY.
Serenity on X
If you're curious about the random $SPY / $QQQ candle: Just now, “US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade" - Reuters - "A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices." - "Trump has said he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections to Congress on November.” Would make sense for Trump to want markets as strong as possible during Midterms elections…
Farmer on X
All that complexity and blow-up risk to clone $SPY's returns in a bull market? https://t.co/kYImPyU49M
Myles on X
Heres a portfolio that's 80% $SPY, $70% $TLT, -70% $PFF, 20% $GLD. Similar return with way lower volatility. Obviously this is just backwards looking, but there are structural reasons why this kind of mix works (Preferred stocks suck, most of the alpha is there). https://t.co/pfsyWJG2f2
BDC on X
I remember the days when these 4 stocks going up by this much meant the $SPY was +2% on the day (at least). Says a lot. https://t.co/aLdbQlfL7W
PAA Research on X
Pretty violent breakdown in the $MTUM and $SPMO ETFs. As you would expect they are now memory heavy indices and won't see a reset of their holding for a while (3rd/4th week of september for both ETFs). Momentum is having a historical selloff which of course was preceded by an unprecedented run (100% outperformance for the $SPMO over the past 3-years relative to the $SPY - never happened before). The charts look awful and the 50-day moving average has been breached. Not good for momentum of the momentum....
Multiples Capital on X
$SPY vs $IWM https://t.co/5PhVIbpBfq
Multiples Capital on X
"Rally of the 2nd Tier": the runner-up is running the show over 6m/3m/1m time periods: • Silver > Gold ( $SLV > $GLD) • ETH > BTC • Small caps > S&P 500 ( $IWM > $SPY) Seeing it occur even in individual stock levels: • $AMD > $NVDA • $EXPE > $BKNG • $LYFT > $UBER What it implies: That breadth + beta has been improving, perhaps in anticipation of rate cuts and overall healthier economy than anticipated. Likely keeps the bull run going for now. Charts below
Voss Capital on X
Much more important than the median is the spread b/ w the cheapest (at 7.4x) and most expensive (at 56x) quintiles on fwd P/E estimates. Valuation dispersion has barely budged w/ recent mkt moves & remains at a record wide gap on par w/ peak of the internet bubble. $SPY $IWM https://t.co/rmzJAcD3tR
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