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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Morgan Stanley's Wigg: " $GOOG AI infra chief Amin Vahdat says Power lead times are directly gating capacity though GOOG would still rather remain grid-connected than fully self-generate as supplying 1 GW at 99.99%+ reliability on a standalone basis can effectively require ~2 GW of generation because of redundancy requirements. GOOGL is targeting a doubling of token-serving capability every six months. GOOGL’s 7-8 year-old TPUs are still running at 100% utilization despite the company using roughly a 6-year depreciation life,"
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Read skeptically, Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) is a shrinking software company living off its cash, with an AI decryptor builder that keeps slipping and a license customer that may not have renewed. Read another way, Nubeva is being prepared for a buyer. Here’s what supports the second read: → In March 2024, Netskope $NTSK, now a ~$7.6B company, bought Nubeva’s TLS (web-traffic decryption) technology and five patents for $1M. Greig Bannister, the CTO who co-invented the key-capture patents, followed the technology to Netskope. → In an August 2024 video, CEO Randy Chou said “partnering and M&A groups” from companies worth $20-30B had reached out after the July 2024 CrowdStrike $CRWD outage. → Chou wants all four AI patents granted before any partnership or sale, and two are still pending. → The FY2026 MD&A says Nubeva is “selectively engaging with lighthouse accounts,” meaning “large, high-profile organizations that serve as validation points for the technology,” to make its offering “more attractive for either future expansion or strategic partnership/M&A.” In a June 2025 video, Chou said lighthouse accounts “matter 100%” in a partnership or M&A talk. → Sales and marketing spend was $14,951 for all of FY2026, with $2.49M of cash on hand. In the same June 2025 video, Chou said Nubeva is “really not marketing” until “the patents and everything else comes in.” → The most recent investor deck is from July 2023, and since then Nubeva has communicated mostly through filings, press releases, and the occasional YouTube interview. In other words, it isn’t pitching investors either, which fits a company waiting on a buyer. A longtime investor I spoke with described Chou as reluctant to spend money, PR included, and called a sale to a larger security company the clear end goal. I’d add that Chou, who makes the call, also owns a quarter of the company.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$NVDA: custom ASICs eat into the GPU share Our scenarios include custom ASICs rising from roughly 20% of the overall AI compute mix toward 40–50%. ABBX records 21.2GW of planned capacity for OpenAI and 13.8GW for Anthropic. Within Anthropic’s plan, ABBX allocates 5GW to AWS Trainium and 5GW to Google/Broadcom TPUs, putting these custom-chip platforms at roughly 72% of its planned capacity. That is a substantial shift in hardware demand if the deployments proceed, although the plans span different timelines. With purchasing concentrated among a few large customers, their decisions to expand on custom silicon could reduce NVIDIA’s share of spending even as the overall AI infrastructure market continues to grow.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$SITM supplies timing devices used in optical modules in NVIDIA-based AI data centers. In an AI data center, a clock exists to keep parts synchronized. Training and inference run across thousands of chips in parallel, and each step depends on data arriving at the right moment. When timing slips, GPUs wait, networks stall, and expensive compute goes unused. The move from 800G to 1.6T optical modules shows how this becomes demand for timing parts. Bandwidth does not simply double. The link is split into more lanes running at higher baud rates. Each lane has a tighter jitter budget, and it often adds clock domains for the DSPs, SerDes groups and laser drivers. So each module carries more timing components, and each component has to meet a higher performance requirement. That pushes average selling prices up alongside unit volumes. The same pattern appears in the switches inside that cluster. A high-radix switch multiplies SerDes lanes as bandwidth scales. When the switch increases radix and speed at the same time, it drives more clock domains across the fabric, the ports, and the control logic. Timing content in the switch therefore multiplies rather than rising in step with the size of the cluster. This is why we see continued hypergrowth for SiTime. In NVIDIA-based data centers, SiTime's parts are discrete devices, separate from the GPU and switch ASICs, allowing timing performance to improve independently as system requirements change, and demand for them rises in several places in the rack at once.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11B
Bearstone 8 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks
DLTR · long

Dollar Tree INC

Dollar Tree is long after divesting Family Dollar, separating its stronger banner from its weaker business.

DLTR $23B
Value Investors Club

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 12 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks

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