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Monday, October 19, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.
@gnoble79

George Noble on X

$CRWV IS THE MOST OBVIOUS SHORT The stock is down 41% since we shorted it at $107 in June, and it’s still one of our biggest shorts. While it cratered, Robinhood customers bought a record amount of it over 5 days, and that's not what you want to see if you're a bull. I think only a takeunder from Nvidia, meaning a buyout below today's price, keeps it out of bankruptcy. Investors are refusing to pay up for AI data centers: https://t.co/BNlSCTeNcI

Investor Letters

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Do You Trust Apple?

Apple’s HomeView strategy ties Siri, privacy and smart-home control to consumer trust in its vision for the home.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 3 clicks

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

“Is Ralph Lauren Still Relevant?”

Ralph Lauren’s 2017 CEO change put Patrice Louvet in charge of reversing nine quarters of same-store sales declines and restoring the…

RL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click
DB · long

Deutsche Bank AG

Deutsche Bank trades at 1.0x tangible book, with projected ROTCE above 13% and a favorable setup ahead of earnings.

DB $62B
Value Investors Club

A temporary glitch?

Coupang’s November 2025 cybersecurity breach tests whether a selloff is temporary despite its 28% Korean e-commerce share, 14 million-plus…

CPNG $27B
Asian Century Stocks 9 clicks

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