WD #360: New Trade, Recent Market Action, Brazil/Inter Update
Atlassian is sold after a 130% gain, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is added following the market plunge; the update also assesses the…
NASDAQ
TEAM
12 stories
$55B Market cap · 2026-10-28
Atlassian is sold after a 130% gain, while iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is added following the market plunge; the update also assesses the…
Quickly back to very attractive levels to put back on short exposure on the software sector after the manic move in Q3 and digestion in September before the sudden crash up in the past 10 days..... AI wins software is in trouble - faster disruption more competition, pricing pressure AI trade is over, software is going to catch down as the market will tank and this won't sit that out (the are not cheap) Disruption and pricing is the tailwind, now valuation is too. Rates don't hurt either as up until recently these were considered long duration assets Recent results were status quo for most (no real acceleration) and pitch AI cohort growth as growing xx% but its not uplifting the total growth they are just changing what they charge for to show the street what it wants to hear) -- that phase is over, valuations are in many cases at year and multi year highs. SBC still a problem. Now comes renewals in the back of this year and thats where the issues will start to emerge on retention and pricing. An thats day 1 they will snowball overtime for the vast majority of these companies. Plenty of names to choose from: $PAYC $DOCU $TEAM $DDOG $PCTY $GDDY $RNG
Atlassian targets a $140 billion market growing 14% annually, with Rovo reaching 5 million monthly active users and assisted actions rising…
$TEAM was at $56 just a few months ago, such efficient markets. Reminder, people only care about SBC when stonk prices are going down. Beware folks fitting a narrative onto price action. https://t.co/FaPZr8c7dn
Always fascinating people willing to pay over 2x multiple for a company like $TEAM which at current levels hard to argue is pricing in much disruption threat v. an $AMZN which has a higher growth rate too
@SandBrandyn I bought a basket of software and adjacent in Feb/March. $TEAM most ridiculous example both to the down and now upside... I don't trust the management teams enough to make a concentrated bet on any of these.
Atlassian $TEAM now up 214% since April, and +5% YTD. Market very efficiently determining future discounted cash flows from software companies, I see.
Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella signals tax cuts and an Ecopetrol revival, while Inter & Co.
Sold my $BILL on this 50%+ run off the lows, and continue to actively trade around core $HUBS and $WDAY positions by regularly writing calls or shorting puts (and sometimes boxing my longs). The volatility has been insane. Sold $ESTC for now. Also, I’m now short a small amount of $ADBE, $NOW, $TEAM, $CXM and $YEXT into July’s de-grossing/de-leveraging squeeze.
Berkshire Hathaway’s dot-com-era performance frames AI-boom comparisons, Atlassian beats earnings, and Roblox shares fall.
Duolingo is presented as an AI-resilient opportunity after SaaS stocks sold off on fears that coding tools will compress software moats,…
The AI disruptions no one seems to be talking about, ytd stock performances $TTD -54% $IT -53% $HUBS -35% $ACN -32% $TEAM -31% $CRM -28% $ADBE -23% $NOW -18% $WDAY -14%
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