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Tuesday, October 13, 2026

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Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications outlook through 2030.

GLW $126B
P Equity Research 37 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV i'm getting something like -.2/sh of real earnigns right now, and something in that ball park for next year as a base case. The downside is significant PT <3/sh if they are unable to grow into their margins, or face continuous pressure from opengate. If they succeed (let's say 25% growth and margin improvement), i also see limited upside: Here's how i get my Earnings number: Adj. EBITDA: +$15M Stock comp: -$23M Fleet wear (D&A + retired units): -$29M Interest, growth capex, net one-offs: -$3M earnings of about -$40M, or -$0.20/sh Current management missed 3 of 4 gross margin guides, and the promised shift toward subscription reversed twice. Recent trends: Revenue +34%, but ARR only +20% (was 34% five quarters ago). Backlog (RPO) up only mid-teens Gross margin 58% → 50% in two years New ARR per unit added: ~$17K in 2024 → ~$10K now Here's how i get limited upside in the bull case: revenue grow 25% a year to about $557M in 2031 adj. EBITDA margin rises from 8.5% to 25% by 2031, then 27% by terminal year 2040 or so. SBC falls to 5–7% of revenue and fleet wear to 10–12%; Assuming a 9% required return, i am getting around 4.5/sh which is the current stock price. Are they subscale? Don't they have like 9k units deployed? That's subscale? What exactly are the "scale" advantages for this type of company? How good is their product vs opengate as a total cost of ownership? doesn't look good for evolv. Says Evolv is 5x the price over 4 years but little differentiation in terms of throughput and accuracy. Why would anyone buy evolv. The school contracts covered by the FTC settlement date from April 2022 through June 2023, and on 4-year terms they renew in 2026–27. We will just see what happens thousands of units are up for renewal or if there is some switching that happens.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

BWX Technologies’ $BWXT commercial segment grew Q2 2026 revenue 72% to $302.5M, while its government segment grew just 2% to $601.3M. $BWXT reported Q2 2026 on August 3, and CEO Rex Geveden called it “another strong quarter characterized by excellent execution across the company”: → Revenue: $901.6M, up 18% y/y (9% organic). → Adjusted EBITDA: $155.5M, up 7%, a 17.2% margin vs. 19.1%. The government segment fell 5% to $126.5M, but grew 22.1% excluding a $29.4M one-time contract gain in Q2 2025, while the commercial segment more than doubled to $36.1M. → EPS: $0.97 GAAP (+14%) and $1.07 non-GAAP (+5%). → FCF: $115.0M, down 9%, as capex rose 27% to $41.4M. → Backlog: $8.4B, up 40% y/y, including $2.26B of government contracts not yet funded by Congress. Q2 bookings were $648.9M vs. $1,640.5M a year earlier, but over the past 12 months, new orders still ran 1.7x revenue. The 2026 guide now calls for $3.8B of revenue, $662-672M of adjusted EBITDA (a 17.5% margin), $4.70-4.80 of non-GAAP EPS, and $345-360M of FCF. In August, $BWXT also changed its guidance for both segments: 1) Government Operations: Lower revenue growth (high single digits, down from low teens) but a higher margin (20.5%, up from 19% at the start of 2026). CFO Mike Fitzgerald said on the Q2 call that high-purity depleted uranium (HPDU) costs are coming in under budget. Most of the segment’s contracts pay $BWXT its costs plus a fee, and the fee goes up when $BWXT spends less than the target cost, so lower HPDU costs mean less revenue but more profit. 2) Commercial Operations: Higher revenue growth (45%, up from 30%), with Precision Components Group (PCG), acquired July 1, adding slightly more than half of the increase, but a lower margin (13%, down from 14%) as $BWXT spends on U.S. capacity and new hires.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Ever since I started following $CCLD I thought it was a great LBO candidate. This thing belongs in a PE portfolio and whoever LBOs will do very well, I would love to participate. $85m market cap, around $120m EV roughly. Can support a lot of leverage due to subscription/reoccurring cash flows. It is cheap in absolute (circa 3x FCF). It is at 1/4 the average multiple arguably worse peers have transacted at (maybe even less by now). Long runway for continued acquisition playbook (management said constantly evaluating 2k opportunities). Acquisition playbook targets distressed RCM companies, cuts costs due to CCLD offshore cheap labor and cross and upsells to existing sticky customers, $CCLD offers a broad suite of products and are implementing adn devloping AI products. Acquisitions earn 20-40% in 6 months. Prices paid are .5-1x Revenues way towards the lower end. Risk: 2026 guidance requires aggresive H2 and cybersecurity incident If anyone is interested in a LBO or pushing for a sale, please reach out, I have done and will do extensive diligence.

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Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $12B
CV's Substack 4 clicks
PTRN · short

Pattern Group INC

Pattern Group is a fragile consumer business targeted on the short side.

PTRN $3B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $56B
P Equity Research 4 clicks

Dell's Tailwinds

Dell booked $131.7B of AI server orders in four quarters and held a $95B backlog as enterprise AI demand accelerates.

DELL $367B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

A Month with Muse

Meta’s Muse automated website fixes and design changes for a solo publisher, illustrating how $20-per-month AI agents can reduce…

META $1.9T
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

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