Sunday, September 13, 2026

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B

Sylence Capital Sep 13 1 click

Sep 13 BKNG $126B

Booking Holdings Deep Dive: An Attractive Setup

Capitalist Letters 4 clicks

Sep 13 SVM $2.7B

Oak Bloke Bonkers Conkers 13th September 2026

The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap Sep 13

Negligible Capital on X

The fact that I had to check the $HOOD app to make sure this was fake is a pretty good indicator of where we stand https://t.co/2f572Mthh7

@DeepSailCapital Sep 13

Deep Sail Capital on X

@SixSigmaCapital It’s kind of the standard AI stack, Chips than Memory than Optics. But a layer deeper is the question if inference is the biggest theme, than does everyone making their own custom silicon become more mainstream? In that case $MRVL probably is highest beta play there.

@TheBenSchmark Sep 12

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Sometimes a simple chart and pun captures the entire thesis. Just go with the $FLO and make bread. https://t.co/VyIYTaVRF1 https://t.co/lGn8FncexY

@Fierce__beast Sep 12

Fierce_beast on X

For $CASY, let's say it grows earnings roughly 6% on average for the next 20 years, then 3% terminally. Maybe its 9% for the next 5 years, but gradually moves toward something like maturity of 3%, average let's say is 6%. What multiple would you currently pay on that earnings stream? Personally, i would pay no more than 25x for this. Add other considerations to the business, maybe you think it will grow faster or longer, adjust your multiple as you prefer.

@partners_road Sep 12

RiverRoadPartners on X

Stan gave the example of 2001. $CSCO had aggressively grown its backlog every yr through the Internet 1.0 buildout & the Street expected the same in 2001, but instead $CSCO’s backlog plunged. The build was over, & with that equipment demand evaporated. That will happen again. https://t.co/7yB6vDgcl8

@TidefallCapital Sep 12

Trevor Scott on X

my mistake $ADBE has a Nov year end. so it's 12x nov 2027, 14x nov 2026.

@finphysnerd Sep 12 1 click

Myles on X

I feel $GEO is a pretty decent short here. It's not cheap, and I might be politically biased, but I think it's hard to see Republicans getting many wins in the midterms, which the market will likely extrapolate to 2028.

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

I'll never understand going long $ADBE at 14x '27 when you can buy $CSU.TO at 15x '27. Maybe because it's Canadian listed.

Nintendo: The Software Payoff Is Still Ahead

Nintendo expects software, digital sales and character licensing to drive growth, with FY2027 revenue forecast at ¥2.05 trillion and…

NTDOY $62B

LL Insights Sep 13

AI Terminator Fears Grow & Rates Breach 4.9% | The Weekly Wrap

Ten-year Treasury yields breach 4.9% as Steve Eisman discusses AI fears, OpenAI's price cut, Oracle's 30% revenue growth and Tesla's…

ORCL $446B

Steve Eisman Sep 11 2 clicks

USA Compression: Unlocking Efficiency As It Heads To The Texas Stock Exchange

USA Compression targets nearly 30% full-year EBITDA growth as JW Power synergies, telemetry and maintenance reduce costs; its units yield…

USAC $3.8B

Ron Ferrie Sep 11 3 clicks

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 11 2 clicks

Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound

Lululemon’s growth stalled as affordable-luxury apparel brands face fading post-Covid demand, cheap social-media influence and China…

LULU $11BNKE $54B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 11 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $74B

Net Interest Sep 11 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)

TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…

MKL $22BPTON $2.1B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 11 2 clicks

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) Stock Rating: Upgrade To Accumulate After Q3 FY10/26 Earnings - Accumulation Zone And Stop Inside

Applied Materials reported Q3 revenue of $9.1 billion, up 25%, and $2.3 billion in free cash flow as AMAT fell roughly 40% from its June…

AMAT $331B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 11

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage

Joby Aviation is initiated at Accumulate after booking $116m of trailing revenue, forming a Toyota manufacturing venture and agreeing to…

JOBY $6.2B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 11

NewtekOne: Pivot Towards Holding Guaranteed Loans A Good Strategy

NewtekOne’s bank conversion and retention of SBA-guaranteed loans target recurring income, while a 6% yield and book-value valuation…

NEWT $343M

Stephen Nemo Sep 11

UHS · long

Universal Health Svcs INC

Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

UHS $10B

Value Investors Club Jun 14 5 clicks

The Fed Is Going to Lose the Bond Market and I Found the Asset That Gets Paid When It Does

Rayonier’s 4.0 million acres are valued at $393 an acre after other assets, versus $1,200 to $1,800 cutover-land sales, framing the timber…

RYN $6B

The Value Road Sep 4 27 clicks

Looking For A 2027 Defense Play: Honeywell Fits The Bill

HONA $53B

Petri Dish Reports Sep 4 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…

CELH $7.1BCOST $398B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 4 5 clicks

The Afterburners Could Kick In Soon On Southwest Airlines Stock - Rating Upgrade

Southwest Airlines is adding ancillary fees, assigned seating and premium products after a 6.7% Q2 adjusted operating margin, targeting up…

LUV $20B

Tim Dunn Sep 4

[scuttleslops] VEEV, CRM, WDAY, SNPS, NVDA

Veeva targets CRM share gains from Salesforce migration delays while Falcon agentic labor expands its reach into life-sciences safety,…

VEEV $42BCRM $200B

scuttleblurb Sep 3 24 clicks

Perpetual Futures and CME: What the Early Data Shows

CME perpetual-futures activity is tested against more than 240,000 CFTC data points on open interest and dealer positioning.

CME $99B

First Strike Research Sep 3 14 clicks

Selling Where They Ain’t

Dollar General’s Q2 FY26 comparable sales rose 3.5%, beating Walmart U.S.

DG $28B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 3 1 click

A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?

Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the…

SMPL $896MBRBR $1.1B

The Value Road Sep 2 11 clicks

Chevron Stock Is A Bargain Amid Venezuela Deal

Chevron committed $7 billion to expand Venezuelan output as record U.S. production and elevated oil prices lifted Q2 earnings.

CVX $416B

Bay Area Ideas Sep 2 3 clicks

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Negligible Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Fierce_beast on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

Trevor Scott on X

Myles on X

Trevor Scott on X

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