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Saturday, September 12, 2026

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@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

Not an AI expert by any stretch, but wonder if US labs actually coordinate to "pace the frontier," it could be a stealth negative for Nvidia’s top-line growth rate. Here’s why: Flattening the Frontier Race: If scaling massive base models is intentionally delayed for alignment, the panic to hoard the newest, most expensive contiguous GPU clusters cools down. Shift to Post-Training & RL: Progress shifts to squeezing intelligence out of existing models via synthetic data and self-play. This relies on inference-class rollout fleets rather than cutting-edge pre-training mega-clusters. The Verification Layer: Evaluating, sandboxing, and grading all that synthetic RL data requires massive CPU compute .... benefitting $INTC Less brute-force pre-training = extended hardware refresh cycles and a normalized upgrade curve for $NVDA. Markets much smarter on this than I, will wait into see how the stock prices react to this next week!
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

For $CASY, let's say it grows earnings roughly 6% on average for the next 20 years, then 3% terminally. Maybe its 9% for the next 5 years, but gradually moves toward something like maturity of 3%, average let's say is 6%. What multiple would you currently pay on that earnings stream? Personally, i would pay no more than 25x for this. Add other considerations to the business, maybe you think it will grow faster or longer, adjust your multiple as you prefer.

Investor Letters

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The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $74B
Net Interest 1 click

In Conversation: NVIDIA

NVIDIA sees inference, agentic workloads and robotics broadening AI compute demand beyond hyperscalers, while high-speed memory shortages…

NVDA $5.5T
Aurelion Research 1 click
CNR · long

Core Natural Resources INC

Core Natural Resources is a US metallurgical and thermal coal producer formed in January 2025 through the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch…

CNR $4.5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Microsoft: Control Your Destiny

Microsoft’s cloud business grew from a $12 billion FY16 run rate to about $237 billion by FY26, while AI-era CapEx may exceed $200 billion…

MSFT $3.7T
TSOH Investment Research

META 2Q26 Earnings Update

Meta's Q2 advertising revenue rose 27% to $59.4 billion, while costs climbed 55%, cutting operating margin to 31%.

META $1.7T
Stock Thoughts

FTAI update.

FTAI Aerospace margins fell to 28.5% as it pursues airline market share, while Power signed a $1.465 billion hyperscaler order and targets…

FTAI $20B
Kairos Research

Meta: 2Q26 Business Update

Meta's 2Q26 revenue rose 27%, but capex, depreciation and nascent cloud and AI ambitions raise margin and return risks as it maximizes…

META $1.7T
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Amazon 2Q'26: AWS Gets the Love

Amazon’s AWS grew 37% to a $169 billion run rate in 2Q’26, while North America retail margins fell excluding a $600 million tariff refund.

AMZN $2.7T
MBI Deep Dives 1 click

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