Thursday, September 10, 2026

One of the Best Business Models in the World Just Went on Sale

AppLovin trades at 18 times EBITDA after a 57% drop, despite 84% EBITDA margins, rapid growth and a machine-learning advertising platform.

APP $104B

The Value Road Sep 10 5 clicks

Sep 10 PRTH $479M

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

Yet Another Value Podcast 3 clicks

Sep 10 AMPL $1.7B

Amplitude Q2 26 - Examining The Moat - Rating, Hold.

Cestrian Capital Research.

From X

@orrdavid Sep 10 1 click

David Orr on X

Does anyone know a way for an $IBKR account to sell the Oracle default swaps, and have those still been going up a ton? IE: I want to get paid if Oracle does not in fact go bust.

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

@tomicki I can't even see what possibly resolves this for many, many years. Could see the big three $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN hit insane market caps.

@RagingVentures Sep 10 2 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Very well stated, short $PANW https://t.co/QcEgBbM9Mg

@RagingVentures Sep 10

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Brin owns at least two jets as well as a 466 foot yacht that is regularly seen cruising around the Mediterranean. Does he really have the intensity and focus to lead $GOOG’s efforts in AI? Start-ups are a young man’s game. (I also think Larry Page was more critical than Brin in Google’s early product and tech architecture successes)

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

In the 2000 example, $QQQ tried to take one final leg up... but it took 3 months. So even if we get a bit higher move up in $SOXX short term, I won't read into it too much. It'll really be new highs that makes me change my mind here. https://t.co/V5l640oDKE

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

$SOXX lost 30% in a month. So similar to $QQQ in 2000.

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

This could still be a 1996/1997-like pause, and maybe $SOXX does start roaring higher in another couple of months. In that instance, it'll be worth reacting fast and listening to the market quickly. Especially if $SOXX starts making new highs, that'll be the time to brace for another melt up / get defensive on shorts. I guess long only guys have the luxury or ignoring all of this.

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

$SOXX made a sharp dive in from June 30th to July 29th. The fact that it still hasn't recovered a month and a half later makes this look a lot more like a 2000's twilight-before-the-collapse market than a 1999 bear trap. Put that another way: On a sharp sell off, you can easily point to technical / positioning factors being the cause. Situational Awareness's blow up could have been a textbook example. But it's just not working that way. In fact, we had a sharp sell off, and there's seemingly no fuel for a rebound despite AI improvement news seeming to come out strong. Markets have wisdom to them. It's worth listening, bull or bear. Right now, the set up seems super bearish, like the market knows there is a problem with AI. And the most likely problem I see is that there's simply no sites available to build more electricity-hungry compute centers. Someone smart I talked with recently pointed out politics could block AI as well ... which could exasberate that problem a bit by individual small local areas or by state and possibly by country. But I still think the root issue here is just not enough electricity, there's simple a hard barrier in the world of atoms that takes many years to resolve.

Investor Letters

All letters

Single Stock Spotlight #14: Kosmos Energy (KOS)

Kosmos Energy (KOS) is pitched as an oil stock poised to outperform if oil stays above $70-$80, supported by a claimed 2 billion-barrel…

KOS $1.6B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Sep 10 2 clicks

TransDigm is still in it for the money

TransDigm’s sole-source aerospace parts generate roughly 70% aftermarket margins, with 90% of revenue tied to owned IP and 80% from…

TDG $61B

scuttleblurb Sep 10 1 click

Gaming And Leisure Properties: Guilty By Association With VICI

Gaming and Leisure Properties raised AFFO guidance and dividends after Q2, trading at 10.2 times forward AFFO with an 80% payout ratio and…

GLPI $12BVICI $26B

Dividend Collection Agency Sep 10

First Impression of Muse

Meta’s Muse personal agent connects multiple Gmail accounts, automates recurring tasks and offers free usage capped at 100 million weekly…

META $1.7T

MBI Deep Dives Sep 9 4 clicks

ServiceNow: A Gem Beating The SaaSpocalypse Narrative

ServiceNow expects AI to rise from 9.5% to 30% of revenue by 2030, supporting $30–32 billion in subscription revenue and margins above 80%.

NOW $141B

Louis Gerard Sep 9 2 clicks

Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows.

DECK $11B

Value Don't Lie Sep 9 5 clicks

[scuttleslops] UNP-NSC merger, HEI, NVDA, AVGO, DG, DLTR

Union Pacific’s $85 billion Norfolk Southern merger pitch centers on a coast-to-coast rail network that cuts interchange delays and wins…

UNP $161BNSC $71B

scuttleblurb Sep 9 3 clicks

Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings

Dell’s Q2 revenue rose 57.7% to $47.0 billion and RPO tripled to $132 billion, but its stock trades at 32 times unlevered pretax free cash…

DELL $366B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 9 1 click

ContextLogic Acquires gChem (LOGC): Update and Valuation

ContextLogic will acquire specialty-solvent maker gChem for $850 million, funded by a $650 million rights offering and $250 million of…

LOGC $678M

Hidden Gems Investing Sep 8 4 clicks

Kodiak AI: The Stock Collapsed Just As The Business Started Working

Kodiak AI’s stock collapse coincides with a planned year-end long-haul driverless launch, while cash burn, customer concentration and…

KDK $689M

High Alpha Professor Sep 8

CNH · long

Cnh Industrial NV

CNH Industrial, the No. 2 global agricultural-equipment OEM, is pitched long at about $10 per share.

CNH $17B

Value Investors Club May 31 1 click

The Fleet Owners' Push for Aggregating Demand

Uber’s hybrid-network proposal would keep AVs and human drivers on its dispatch platform, while Waymo and Tesla pursue vertically…

UBER $145B

MBI Deep Dives Jul 27 2 clicks

Caris Life Sciences: The Quiet Founder Trying to Win the Holy Grail of Oncology

Caris Life Sciences, CAI, uses AI-trained molecular oncology data for therapy selection and multi-cancer early detection, with 97% of…

CAI $8.5B

Substack von Philipp Jul 27

Ally Financial: The Next Vintage

Ally Financial's Q2 FY26 consumer auto originations rose 21% to $13.3 billion as newer, 9%+ yield vintages replace troubled 2022 loans;…

ALLY $12B

TSOH Investment Research Jul 27

Weekend Digest 351: Market Volatility, TFSL, Roper, Booz Allen, TIPS Vs. Treasury Bonds

AI momentum trades are unwinding as leveraged products amplify volatility; TFS Financial offers a 7.5% yield on cost and potential upside…

TFSL $4.7BBAH $9.3B

Ian’s Insider Corner Jul 26

Hidden in Plane Sight

An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…

ASLE $266M

The Mikro Kap Jul 26 3 clicks

AirIQ Inc. ($IQ.V) FINS Review

AirIQ’s 2025 revenue rose 17% to $6.5 million, but tax reassessments cut net income 50% and lifted its P/E to 144x.

AILQF $9.5M

Wolf's Substack Jul 26 2 clicks

Texas Instruments 2Q'26: Not Another Head Fake

Texas Instruments’ 2Q’26 revenue grew 23% year over year and 13% sequentially, supporting management’s view that pricing and demand have…

TXN $246B

MBI Deep Dives Jul 25 2 clicks

Netflix: Deep Dive Analysis

Netflix's Q3 guidance points to sub-12% growth as viewing hours rise about 2%, increasing reliance on pricing, paid sharing and advertising.

NFLX $511B

Hated Moats Jul 24

Netflix: Below forward 20 PE Ratio for one of the best companies in the world

Netflix trades below 20 times forward earnings despite $51 billion in revenue, 31.5% guided operating margin and ad revenue expected to…

NFLX $511B

Substack von Philipp Jul 24

Thursday, September 10, 2026

David Orr on X

David Orr on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

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David Orr on X

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David Orr on X

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