David Orr on X
I'd point out that the $SOXX chart YTD is near perfectly following the 2000 example with the failed break out.
NASDAQ
iShares Semiconductor ETF
SOXX
16 stories
$1.4B Market cap · 2026-08-15
David Orr on X
$SOXX had every chance to break out to new highs. After Leopold's blow up, you should strongly have assumed it would have. It tried, and the bulls blew ouat again. The whole setup seems so bearish the AI trade today. https://t.co/Y9i3lKYHXU
Negligible Capital on X
$SOXX – Semis have underperformed the Nasdaq 100 by about 14% since the start of July, putting semis on track for their biggest quarter of underperformance relative to the broader tech index since 2007 per Bloomberg. Really puts into perspective how wild Q2 was: https://t.co/LpGHKEZKu3
David Orr on X
In the 2000 example, $QQQ tried to take one final leg up... but it took 3 months. So even if we get a bit higher move up in $SOXX short term, I won't read into it too much. It'll really be new highs that makes me change my mind here. https://t.co/V5l640oDKE
David Orr on X
$SOXX lost 30% in a month. So similar to $QQQ in 2000.
David Orr on X
This could still be a 1996/1997-like pause, and maybe $SOXX does start roaring higher in another couple of months. In that instance, it'll be worth reacting fast and listening to the market quickly. Especially if $SOXX starts making new highs, that'll be the time to brace for another melt up / get defensive on shorts. I guess long only guys have the luxury or ignoring all of this.
David Orr on X
$SOXX made a sharp dive in from June 30th to July 29th. The fact that it still hasn't recovered a month and a half later makes this look a lot more like a 2000's twilight-before-the-collapse market than a 1999 bear trap. Put that another way: On a sharp sell off, you can easily point to technical / positioning factors being the cause. Situational Awareness's blow up could have been a textbook example. But it's just not working that way. In fact, we had a sharp sell off, and there's seemingly no fuel for a rebound despite AI improvement news seeming to come out strong. Markets have wisdom to them. It's worth listening, bull or bear. Right now, the set up seems super bearish, like the market knows there is a problem with AI. And the most likely problem I see is that there's simply no sites available to build more electricity-hungry compute centers. Someone smart I talked with recently pointed out politics could block AI as well ... which could exasberate that problem a bit by individual small local areas or by state and possibly by country. But I still think the root issue here is just not enough electricity, there's simple a hard barrier in the world of atoms that takes many years to resolve.
David Orr on X
$SOXX $NVDA down since the big beat... sure looks like a news failure event. I think it'll be electricity bottlenecks that kill the AI hardware bubble. The hyperscalers controlling that bottleneck should be the biggest winner.
Negligible Capital on X
Not only are $IGV and $SOXX both green today, but $IGV just flipped positive YTD, led higher by $CRM up 20%, and cybersecurity names ripping after $CRWD and $OKTA Software and Semis are friends again https://t.co/pYgkP9Rtsw
BDC on X
$SOXX could go down 20% from here and still be up over 30% YTD
SOXX 2026-08-21 SOXX: Growth And Profitability May Be Peaking
SOXX holdings Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom signal slowing growth and peak-margin risk after the sector’s steep July selloff.
Mauro Caversazzi 1 clickOdd Diligence on X
If Anthopic or OpenAI filed their S-1 one day after hours What do you think $SOXX does the next trading day?
David Orr on X
@Biohazard3737 I was leaning way more great bet for Citadel before today's $SOXX action. Opinion will change again fast from here... if $SOXX randomly nukes 10% in a few days though, yikes.
David Orr on X
It's not THAT clear Citadel made a good bet. Probably good. But it could be losing. Three buckets: 1. Citadel brand buying the block creates a lot of buyers short term, letting them get out. A counter to this is: how many other funds/players blew up at the same time, with how much more stock still needing to be sold at any price by brokers? And redemptions. 2. The $SOXX drop was mostly just technical and will keep going up again after this. In which case Citadel will kill it. 3. The $SOXX drop was on real fundamentals, like the market knows the trade is over. In that case, Citadel stands to get slaughtered if the move continues down. Nobody really knows. Memory seems very questionable, though. I follow $TSM well and that seems merely fairly priced here, not a screamin' buy. $NVDA seems hard today, with all this chatter of competing chips / AI getting so powerful the software moat seems like probable junk in a few years.
BDC on X
I've been as skeptical of the semi hype/froth as any of the bears - but also open minded as per our process. We've largely avoided material positions on the long side in the space, with the exception of some trades here and there and some 2nd/3rd order beneficiaries that we identified early-ish. Also short $SOXX in decent size. But that said, and sticking with the open-minded process - it's pretty rare to see gaps between fwd EPS estimates and stock price as wide as what is visible in $SNDK here:
Broken Moats on X
Almost a 40% spread opened up since the beginning of June (3 weeks ago!) between $MSFT and $SOXX Nearly 60% on $CRM and $SOXX... Buckle up
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