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Wednesday, September 9, 2026

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Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows. Its net cash balance sheet and premium footwear brands support a value case.

DECK $11B
Value Don't Lie 5 clicks

From X

@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

I've been as skeptical of the semi hype/froth as any of the bears - but also open minded as per our process. We've largely avoided material positions on the long side in the space, with the exception of some trades here and there and some 2nd/3rd order beneficiaries that we identified early-ish. Also short $SOXX in decent size. But that said, and sticking with the open-minded process - it's pretty rare to see gaps between fwd EPS estimates and stock price as wide as what is visible in $SNDK here:
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Exceptional idiosyncratic short opportunities emerging from the on/off semi trade that is largely indiscriminately moving the markets and sectors each day. (been long opportunities that emerged too) Private credit exposed names have ripped off financial sector rotation and likely some short squeeze in heavily exposed names - names like $FG $MET $MFC (continue to tout these until their exposure is recognized by the market) Software - each name needs to be looked at on its own accord, the broad software is dead or alive from ai does not work. Big rally across the board has left more disrupted names like $PCTY and $PAYC up for the year now. Plenty of others that look good to build sort positions against (especially if you have long software/dats service provider exposure) Dispersion past quarter should set up some very interesting opportunities that should have to stand on their own fundamentals when earnings come
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

Alpha where you least expect it... Over the past 3-months the FURNITURE space has delivered monster upside relative to the indices. Many of these legacy companies have pristine balance sheets, generate cash, and continue to modestly grow their order books despite the ongoing weakness in housing. These stocks in some cases were trading at close to zero EV ($BSET, $ETD) when including their real estate holdings. They remain cheap and have tons of earnings leverage to a housing upturn. 3-month returns: $BSET 47.7% $BOBS 30.8% $HOFT 17.5% $WSM 17.2% $LZB 14.7% $HVT 13.3% $SPX 6.4%
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Someone really going to need to explain how Stripe buying $PYPL is also bullish for $XYZ? Venmo now gets unlimited funding, a direct consumer facing application for the biggest player in payments, and the optionality of their checkout/pos business if they want to scale and invest aggressively their for that (like pushing their stable coin initiative that would be well received by retailers). Would think the correct framework for this deal is it is net negative the entire payment space as a new entrant has new pathways to compete and disrupt ($TOST, $STNE $FOUR etc included)

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Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 6 clicks
UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $145B
MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

PEP $179B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer

AppLovin is down 48% YTD after its first guidance miss, with revenue 1% below expectations and EPS 2.5% short, reviving fears of an adtech…

APP $104B
Capitalist Letters 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…

COST $398B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks
FTAI · long

Ftai Aviation LTD

FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.

FTAI $19B
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