New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, November 15, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@MaiusPartners

Maius on X

Compute and infrastructure expenses are expected to reach ~$13.0bn in Q4 as the $SPCX contract ramps. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to reach $18.6–20.3bn in Q4, up ~10–20% QoQ, with the competitive environment and holiday seasonality as potential headwinds. That puts revenue per compute dollar at ~1.5x. Meanwhile, roughly $80/$120bn of payments are against disclosed commitments in 2027/28 that help underwrite the entire global AI trade. The harder question is how quickly and profitably can API usage grow next year? Coding has been a clear winner. But sustaining growth requires either deeper usage within the industry and/or broader deployment across other high knowledge-intensive industries (finance, healthcare, legal). For the former, a ceiling is emerging, especially when sophisticated clients choose to train their own models to avoid the closed-source tax (e.g., Palantir). For the latter, those opportunities are large but much harder to capture, as turning them into reliable production systems requires data integration, domain-specific knowledge, corporate and regulatory approvals, and sometimes an entire organizational workflow redesign. Anthropic’s own $100m program to train 10,000 deployment engineers illustrates the work still required. However, wherever you look, the most sophisticated industry players choose to train their own models, e.g., Harvey AI using Kimi. Given this dynamic, it's not hard to paint a scenario where the“revenue per dollar of compute” metric continues to decline further in 2027 as industry capacity ramps, and hence one can see why the market is becoming extremely skeptical of the entire AI trade, given the labs are essentially underwriting the entire semiconductor industry at this stage. Where am I underestimating the upside: usage intensity (AGI? Humanoid Robots?), deployment speed in legacy industries? Or the entire cost curve?

Investor Letters

All letters

Intel Custom ASICs?

Intel’s custom ASIC business more than doubled last quarter as it pursues hyperscaler demand, AI accelerators and a stronger Intel Foundry.

INTC $317BQCOM $185B
Chipstrat 5 clicks

Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks
DIDIY · long

Didi Global INC

Didi Global is China’s Uber, led by co-founder Wei Cheng, who owns $1 billion of Didi stock.

DIDIY $15B
Value Investors Club

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 89 of 295

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

376 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.