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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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Intel Custom ASICs?

Intel’s custom ASIC business more than doubled last quarter as it pursues hyperscaler demand, AI accelerators and a stronger Intel Foundry.

INTC $317BQCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Six stocks I’m still following filed Q3 numbers: → $QXO: Operating cash flow was only ~$1M in Q3, down from $213M a year ago. → Boost Run $BRUN: Says it has secured $600M of non-dilutive project financing, but a Georgia delay leaves year-end ARR near my bear case. → Reviva $RVPH: Valued at 26.5% of its cash, but needs $50-55M for its second Phase 3 trial and FDA filing. → DigiPowerX $DGXX: ~$30M short of its ~$350M 2027 capex plan, even counting the $200M loan it hasn’t closed yet. → Agility Robotics $AGLT: Down 36.1% from its first-day close, with a little over two years of cash. → FORT Robotics’ SPAC $NTWO: 82% redeemed, and its price implies 36.7x FORT’s TTM revenue. So did the quarter change my call on any of the six? That’s what I answer in my new Q3 update, including whether I’m buying, selling, or holding each name.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The cash flow statement adds share-based compensation back to operating cash flow, since it's a non-cash expense: the company paid its employees in shares, not cash. Over the 12 months through October 2022, Intuit $INTU had $3.81 billion of free cash flow, a 3.5% yield on its $109 billion market value. Move its $1.45 billion of share-based compensation to financing activities, and the yield falls to 2.2%. That's roughly $2.20 of free cash flow per year for every $100 of Intuit stock, not $3.50.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Is Freedom the one subsidizing itself and financial ecosystem through that whole share issuance mechanism nuance? Given that can’t they not really afford to burn money on an uncertain payback in marketplace? This could be the “dagger” toppling them and their pyramaid scheme esque structure which would benefit $KSPI. This is disconfirming evidence so in the spirit of Darwin I will be monitoring this to see how it plays out. I will try and gather the specifics on what I’m alluding to and come back to this
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTWO ~$228 Rockstar (GTA, Red Dead), 2K (NBA 2K, BioShock) and Zynga. GTA VI launches 11/19 after 13 years. It's the last big independent publisher on the public market: Microsoft bought Activision for $68.7B, and EA went private for $55B. Gabelli Funds owns it, and Gabelli's playbook is private market value plus a catalyst: - EA sold for ~7.4x revenue and Activision for ~7.8x. - On Value Line's $10.0B fiscal 2027 revenue (year ending March 2028), that's a $74-78B EV, or ~$390-410 a share. - It trades at ~4.4x the same revenue. The preorder data says people aren't buying the cheap version. Average selling price is ~$97, so most are taking the $99.99 edition over the $79.99 one. ~$1B of preorders already beats GTA V's $800M first day. Guidance looks sandbagged. It implies only ~30M GTA VI units vs a 37M broker forecast, and since 2007 Take-Two has beaten the low end of its bookings guide every year. Zelnick: "uncharted territory, with preorders trending well above our expectations." The long tail is GTA Online. Recurring spending is 81% of bookings, and experts expect battle passes and a creator marketplace this time. The last time a GTA came out, the stock went ~5x over four years. Mgmt expects to be net cash by March. Bear: an expert sees no buyer in the next 5 years (Sony is the only logical one). On Value Line's margins, 2027 EBITDA is only ~$1.8B, so the PMV needs GTA margins to look more like EA's.

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks
SKYD · short

Paramount Skydance CORP

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is a levered media conglomerate expected to merge with Warner Bros. Discovery in the third quarter.

SKYD $38B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

PDD Supplemental

JD, Alibaba and Douyin are assessed for their competitive threat to PDD, with a specific investment stance on JD.

PDD $112BJD $38B
Bearstone 1 click

Deep Dive: Palantir ($PLTR)

Palantir’s forward-deployed engineering model underpins its AI software growth, but AWS, Microsoft and AI labs are copying it at scale as…

PLTR $405B
Rebound Capital

Blue Chips

Project Kilby, a planned Texas behind-the-meter data center twice Project Stargate’s size, would reshape Permian gas flows and boost demand…

GEV $213B
Doomberg

SAP: Deep Dive Analysis

SAP’s deeply embedded ERP suite creates high switching costs as it moves customers to cloud subscriptions and embeds AI in core workflows.

SAP $271B
Hated Moats

PDD

PDD uses group buying and daily app rewards to turn shoppers into distributors, then monetizes merchant attention through advertising and…

PDD $112B
Bearstone 1 click

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