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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

We think Google's ($GOOGL) TPU volumes alone could add roughly $11 billion to $14 billion a year to Broadcom ($AVGO) revenue on our illustrative estimates, and Anthropic and OpenAI are a larger opportunity on top. April supply-chain estimates put Google's TPU demand at 4.2 million to 4.5 million units in 2026, rising above 6 million units in 2027. We allow for MediaTek's allocation to rise from around 600,000 units in 2026 to 1 million units in 2027 and assume Broadcom supplies the remainder. At the 6 million-unit level in 2027, that leaves Broadcom with roughly 1.1 million to 1.4 million additional chips compared with 2026. At an illustrative $10,000 of revenue per chip, that would add $11 billion to $14 billion in annual revenue from higher volumes alone. The actual increase will depend on which designs ship and their selling prices. Our working estimates put Anthropic's demand for Broadcom-supplied TPUs at around 1 gigawatt in 2026, rising to 5 gigawatts in 2027. OpenAI's separate custom-chip program has demand estimated at 1.3 gigawatts in 2027 and 5 gigawatts in 2028. Anthropic's TPU purchases overlap with the Google TPU opportunity, so we count those sales once. Together, the Anthropic and OpenAI estimates point to around 10 gigawatts of demand by 2028. Assuming Broadcom earns $10 billion to $20 billion for each gigawatt supplied, that represents a $100 billion to $200 billion revenue opportunity across those deployments.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We added to Tesla ($TSLA) as a long-term holding in physical AI through Optimus and Cybercab, and we keep the position small. Our view is that an affordable, capable Optimus could become an enormous product, extending Tesla's opportunity beyond its vehicle business. Tesla's batteries and its ability to coordinate difficult industrial supply chains add to that potential. The position stays small because reliability in real working environments, affordability and commercialization timing are unproven. Demonstrations alone do not establish that Optimus is ready for sustained use, and commercialization could take longer than investors expect. Reports that China was slowing humanoid-company IPO activity reinforce our concern that financial enthusiasm can advance faster than the underlying technology. A rumored Tesla facility in Ningbo, near Shanghai, could strengthen the industrial case if confirmed. Its proposed role is to coordinate Chinese suppliers and validate components for Optimus V3. The associated target of 50,000 Optimus units by year-end remains unconfirmed and ambitious, and we do not build our case around that volume. Our interest rests on the eventual product opportunity and Tesla's ability to solve production problems.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

3D chips could create more room for specialist EDA startups. We are not convinced that more difficult chip design automatically translates into a large revenue windfall for $SNPS, $CDNS and Siemens. Fine-pitch stacking changes decisions that used to be made within one die. Put a circuit upstairs and its wires may get shorter, but its heat affects the circuit below. Placement, signal timing and power delivery have to be optimized together across the stack. That creates a reason for $AVGO and $NVDA to build custom tools around their architectures. Broadcom already describes a proprietary design flow built on industry-standard tools. Nvidia publishes its own research on assigning connections across tiers in 3D chips. Our inference is that the chip designers will keep some of the most differentiating optimization work in-house. A startup that solves a costly gap in cross-die planning or optimization could also win business without replacing an entire EDA suite. The incumbents still supply implementation, verification and manufacturing sign-off tools, and they are developing 3D capabilities themselves. Internal tooling is evidence that customers need more than the standard flow; it does not establish that incumbent spending falls. We see a more interesting startup opportunity where a tool can shorten repeated design iterations or improve the resulting chip enough to earn a separate budget. That is the part of the 3D transition we would investigate before assuming the largest EDA vendors capture most of the upside.zz
@SouthernValue95 10 clicks

SouthernValue on X

$AMZN paid <$400M for Annapurna … crazy how easy it is to spend money these days. Interesting acquisition, though. Decart has a world model and a video model, but the core piece AMZN is interested in is its “DOS” Decart Optimization Stack which helps AI models to train or inference over any chip technology, including already working with Trainium. This is a piece of technology AMZN wouldn’t want acquired by $NVDA. Makes a lot of sense within AMZN as a way to help customers use NVDA AMD CRBS TRN at optimal performance.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Four of BWX Technologies’ $BWXT six top executives took their current roles in 2025, but all four were promoted from inside the company. $BWXT’s 2030 plan depends most on the executives below: → Rex Geveden (President and CEO): CEO since 2017 after joining as COO in 2015. Previously an EVP at Teledyne Technologies $TDY and 17 years at NASA, where he was COO. → Mike Fitzgerald (CFO): CFO since July 2025, interim from May 2025. Joined in 2022 as chief accounting officer; previously at MorganFranklin Consulting and Deloitte. → Joe Miller (President, Government Operations): Since June 2025. Served on the submarine USS Norfolk, joined $BWXT in 2011 as an engineer, and ran Advanced Technologies before taking over the segment. → John MacQuarrie (President, Commercial Operations): More than 28 years at $BWXT, and more than 30 in the nuclear industry. → Kevin McCoy (Chief Nuclear Officer): Moved from Government Operations president in June 2025 to help speed up Columbia- and Virginia-class production. Retired vice admiral and former commander of Naval Sea Systems Command. → Kate Kelly (President, Advanced Technologies): Has run Advanced Technologies, home to Pele, BANR, and TRISO (its microreactor and fuel programs), since June 2025, after joining $BWXT in 2012. Several senior roles turned over in 2025 and 2026: → CFO: Robb LeMasters stepped down in May 2025 and stayed on as a special adviser; Fitzgerald replaced him. → General counsel: Ronald Whitford stepped down on November 4, 2025, and Toby Smith, previously corporate secretary at elevator maker Otis Worldwide $OTIS, replaced him. The 8-K says the exit wasn’t tied to “any legal issue or any disagreement.” → Strategy: Rik Geiersbach, previously head of strategy and corporate development for the defense unit of Boeing $BA, joined as chief strategy officer in September 2025. → Nuclear Operations Group: Retired Rear Admiral Howard Markle now runs the naval reactor plants in place of Gary Camper, with no release announcing the change. $BWXT’s board includes Adm. John Richardson, the former Chief of Naval Operations and former director of Naval Reactors.

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026

QXO's Q3 sales rose 79% to $4.9 billion after TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, while acquisition debt lifted interest expense to $163…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 3 clicks

Cerrado Gold: Research Note

Cerrado Gold will acquire Argentina’s Manantial Espejo mine from Pan American Silver for $20 million and targets a 2027 restart funded by…

PAAS $15B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

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