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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

SpaceX ($SPCX) targets 13GW, close to our own estimate. In August 2026, our calculation put SpaceX's visible compute capacity over the coming years at roughly 13GW. On the Q3 call, Elon Musk targeted 13GW online by the end of 2027. The numerical match is encouraging. Musk's target concerns terrestrial compute, while our work examined the longer-term orbital opportunity. It supports our view of the scale SpaceX can pursue, although the deployment path and timing differ. We see 13GW as an achievable first stage of the buildout. SpaceX's ambition to manufacture 100GW of solar panels annually never meant all of that would become operating AI capacity in the near term. Our calculation focused on how much capacity we could see a credible path to deploying. For orbital compute to reach 20–30GW and keep growing, solar manufacturing becomes much more consequential. SpaceX needs high-efficiency cells produced at scale in the US, or an alternative supply route that gets those panels integrated into AI satellites. More power from each kilogram of solar hardware means more compute capacity for the mass launched. Starship has now demonstrated orbital payload delivery. In our view, that clears the fundamental launch hurdle and gives us a high degree of confidence that the first 10–20GW can reach orbit relatively soon, with or without rapid reusability. Much larger deployments require rapid reuse. Flying the same vehicle repeatedly reduces the number of new rockets SpaceX must manufacture and allows launch capacity to grow with a smaller fleet. Solar production and launch cadence then have to expand together. We think SpaceX will get there. The pace of high-efficiency solar production, satellite deployment and Starship turnaround will determine how quickly it can move beyond the first tens of gigawatts. #SpaceX
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

I don't own $ASTS and not advice, but if you're capitulating just because a stock price went down.. There's little investment thesis or conviction in the first place. People always have multi-year ideas like $RKLB becoming the next $SPCX or AST becoming the next Starlink competitor. Kinda reminiscent of retail favorite names like $HOOD back in 2024, or $NBIS later in 2025... But there's always capitulation periods along the way like the time hedge funds shorted Nebius to $70 in Dec/Jan, after calling it the Neocloud winter. Or the wave of negative analyst DGs on Robinhood on the drop back to $17. Or even macro scares like April 2025. So lot of retail investors never gave their original longs time to play out. Fast forward, a lot of these popular retail names do end up cooking... so kinda sad seeing how quickly sentiment turns.

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026

QXO's Q3 sales rose 79% to $4.9 billion after TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, while acquisition debt lifted interest expense to $163…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 3 clicks

Cerrado Gold: Research Note

Cerrado Gold will acquire Argentina’s Manantial Espejo mine from Pan American Silver for $20 million and targets a 2027 restart funded by…

PAAS $15B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

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