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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

For companies like $SIVE / $AAOI, the demand imbalance for lasers are so severe That even a 20-30% overall demand reduction from a hypothetical DC slowdown would likely not eliminate the shortage. We're seeing this before the next architectural shifts, where $NVDA Jensen Huang expects 15x optical volume for CPO scale-up. And as more hyperscalers commit to NPO as seen with $LITE new $5B UHP laser contracts. I'd argue this is more nuanced since I can't say the same for finished 800G/1.6T pluggables or lower end 70mW-100mW laser ranges that are currently bottlenecks. But this argument is more toward higher spec lasers. $AAOI is vertically integrated and has 300-400 mW capabilities, so they have the capability to shift attention to merchant lasers over supplying end-to-end optical transceivers. $SIVE is more pure play on this laser bottleneck, but they have the capabilities for 200mW + higher margin multiwavelength NPO/CPO lasers. I'd argue this is specifically the case for bottlenecks where demand imbalances are so deep (creating higher long term visibility, such as HBM). Whether it's large body substrates from $ATS that's bottlenecking Marvell + $AMD or lasers from $LITE that are sold out into 2029. or liquid transformers that have 4-5 year lead times. They they would still sell out of capacity even if overall demand decreased. If markets de-risked, it would make sense to hit optical module manufacturing players, maybe server rack assembly, to companies that still require heavy financing like Neoclouds. And obviously haircut growth valuations (but not to the point where demand collapses to 0). Yet we're seeing everything in AI trade is getting lumped up together as something that requires heavy financing + not profitable.
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

$STIM is up a lot. It should be up more. Neurostar back to growth +2%, call comments said 2027 will grow. New go to market is working - congrats to mgmt n phenomenal execution. Greenbrook accelerated. Still with lower occupancy on some units - lots of room to improve that. GAAP ebit profitability looks possible in 2027 (gross margins inflecting) and definitely in 2028. Cash flow+. Market still gives ZERO implied credit for the SOTP on Greenbrook even if we use a 5.5x GP multiple on Neurostar, below $BWAY at 7-8x. And then we have the $CMPS distribution partnership in 2027, even without which this is a $6-7 fair value sooner than later. They continue to execute on the growth story then this is $10+ in 12-24 months Not advice. We are long. That could change at any time.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

If a company is valued at $2B, has ~$1B in cash/inventory... And makes $354M FCF a quarter. Then returns 30-50% of FCF for dividends next year. I'd argue it's more of a matter of time before shareholder returns/fundamentals, (especially memory) overpower forced selling. But stock prices can look really dislocated from actual performance for periods of time, like now. Same with photonics, but that's more of a 2027-2028 growth type story with CPO + more optical content/xpu. Laser companies like $LITE, $AAOI, and potentially $SIVE depending on quals, would likely be printing few years after capacity expansion comes online. And it's already been largely funded... Lumentum with $NVDA + hyperscalers, AOI with $1.6B+ in ATMs, Sivers with 700M SEK from institutions. Compared to other sectors that still require a lot of capital for their buildouts.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Not a surprise, but still encouraging. The Zelda remake from $NTDOY has a 96 right now on metacritic. It comes out today. No one seems to talk about 7974/$NTDOY because there's no Mario title this year, but putting out a remake of arguably the best video game ever made and then matching its excellence in front of a major motion picture release seems like it's good for revenue, earnings, and cash flow. I don't think investors understand the #zelda fan base. or maybe #nintendo in its entirety. @firstadopter

Investor Letters

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Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

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TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

ON THE TAPE with Guy Adami

Guy Adami discusses Nvidia, Anthropic's IPO prospects, energy, gold and the AI trade.

NVDA $4.2T
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 5 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 3 clicks

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