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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I calculated how much of the Storm copper project’s build American West Metals $AWMLF has to fund beyond a US$40M loan from Storm’s future copper buyer, after its new pre-feasibility study (PFS). Ocean Partners, the metals trader that holds Storm’s offtake (the right to buy all of its output), agreed in April 2025 to lend up to US$40M of the initial capex defined by the PEA (Storm’s first-pass study) through a senior secured loan, subject to a bankable feasibility study and a final investment decision (FID). The loan covered 84.4% of the PEA’s US$47.4M, and covers 49.4% of the PFS’s US$81.0M. Counting pre-development, the part of Storm’s US$108.3M pre-production cost that the loan doesn’t cover tripled to US$68.3M from US$22.1M. $AWMLF’s 80% of the US$68.3M gap is ~US$55M, more than twice its ~US$24.6M market cap. The PFS lists offtake prepayments, project debt, build-own-operate deals, and Canadian critical minerals programs as non-dilutive options. Its cash flow model also counts a ~US$24M refund from Canada’s 30% clean technology manufacturing tax credit, but the refund only arrives in the second year of production, after construction. Aston Bay Holdings (TSXV: BAY), which owns the other 20% of Storm, only starts funding its share after the DFS (the next, more detailed study) and the FID, so $AWMLF pays for everything until then. After the FID, Aston Bay’s 20% of the gap is ~US$14M, more than its own ~US$11M market cap. If Aston Bay doesn’t pay, its stake gets diluted, and below 10% it turns into a 2% royalty. So $AWMLF may end up funding more than 80% of the build, and its stake in Storm would grow as well.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$ZIM @ZeeContrarian1 @Chuckyb22074706 @ROICRHODES @christankerfund @MarkGroskyEsq. How are we thinking about $HLAG circa ~600m incentive to close this thing before March record date (giving us Q4 26’ div and top up). Thoughts and why would be appreciated. @Chuckyb22074706 is the only one to really touch on this and has a good point about better directors potentially moving up the record date. @ZeeContrarian1 first love your content and evident clarity of thought, thank you! I feel like your thesis is bulletproof except for this risk? How do you think about it especially since if I’m not mistaken you haven’t really touched upon it.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks
EFXT · long

Enerflex LTD

Enerflex, a $3 billion natural gas infrastructure and equipment company, blends contracted energy-services cash flows with equipment…

EFXT $2.5B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

Churchill Downs: Doubling Down

Churchill Downs is selling regional casinos to focus on horse racing and historical racing machines, where Exacta software and racetrack…

CHDN $6.9B
Eagle Point Capital

Walmart’s Evolution

Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…

WMT $1TPYPL $49B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

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