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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) delisted TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO parent on September 26, partly over “deference” to the former chairman who still controls 59.8% of $TOYO. $TOYO’s governance traces back to Junsei Ryu, its Chairman and CEO until March 2026, who controlled 66.9% of $TOYO’s vote before the June offering, or 59.8% of today’s 42.7M shares by my count. He was also Representative Director, Chairman and CEO of Abalance until he gave up his representative role in March 2026. $TOYO’s 20-F calls Abalance its controlling shareholder and says Abalance’s board or president must approve $TOYO’s significant transactions, including investments above 5% of $TOYO’s total assets. As of June 30, that bar was $26.9M, which the $357M HJT cell plant $TOYO plans in Texas clears more than 13 times over. Abalance’s problems came to a head in 2026: → January 2026: The TSE fined Abalance ¥43.2M and, on January 31, designated its shares a “Security on Special Alert” over group governance and related-party controls. → July 31, 2026: The TSE moved Abalance to “Security Under Supervision.” → August 19, 2026: Abalance’s FY3/2026 results carried a going-concern warning, and its auditor disclaimed an opinion on its annual report. → September 26, 2026: The TSE delisted Abalance. The TSE’s stated reasons for the delisting say Abalance’s improvement plan didn’t address why its officers and employees stopped exercising independent judgment, which the exchange traced to “deference to the former Representative Director, Chairman and CEO and reluctance to challenge him.” That executive is Ryu, who held the title until March. The exchange also cited missing group-wide controls over deals where Abalance companies sold materials to outside processors and then bought the processed goods back. Put simply, some of Abalance’s overseas subsidiaries sold polysilicon to wafer makers and bought it back as wafers, and Abalance had to correct how it accounted for those deals in its FY3/2026 results. Abalance didn’t name those subsidiaries. $TOYO, for its part, buys polysilicon and gets its wafers from a “designated facility in Indonesia,” and neither company has said whether any of $TOYO’s transactions were among those corrected. So buying $TOYO means trusting Ryu, whose 59.8% stake outvotes all other holders combined, and a delisted parent with a going-concern warning to treat outside holders fairly.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 1 click

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 2 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 1 click

ASML ($ASML) Deep Dive

ASML monopolizes EUV lithography, a critical tool for leading-edge chips, with production capacity stretched through 2028 and customer…

ASML $591B
Jimmy's Journal 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

ON THE TAPE with Guy Adami

Guy Adami discusses Nvidia, Anthropic's IPO prospects, energy, gold and the AI trade.

NVDA $4.2T
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 5 clicks

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