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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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@majgeoinvesting

Maj Soueidan on X

Almost got super excited about $AEYE Q3 inflection to profitability that they reported. There’s also been some major insider buying and they’re buying back a good deal of stock. However, these fuckers use EBITDA as their adjusted EPS - a little sneaky. I’m still watching, but not nearly as excited as I was. I mean, it’s still a potential breakout because the company reported a GAAP profit for the first time in its recent history. So, you can potentially value the company on price or EV to revenue, which is looks to be around 4x, which seems about fair. EV/EBITDA is around 13x. They sells software and services that help businesses make websites accessible to people with disabilities and just launched “Agentic Audits and tools” that integrate accessibility intelligence into AI coding workflows Need to figure out where revenue has to get to in order to get to profitability on a real adjusted income basis and if analyst estimates are GAAP or adjusted EPS and not EBITDA. Shame on analysts if they’re using EBITDA. @MicrocapDr It appears that they are - looks like they’re just using the company’s adjusted EBITDA guidance.😂 lazy If you look at the GAAP history, they’ve been losing a ton of money, but the estimates (in green) are much higher. Financial matrix source: @InfoArbMonitor
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

New commentary today from SoftBank on Elon Musks post 4 days ago: “SoftBank is defaulting on their turbine orders” Analyst Question: “Any comment on that?” SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Goto: “this is simply not correct at all. There is no such default” This also mirrors what $GE CEO Scott Strazik stated about seeing no procurement cancellations or counterparty financing difficulties. Pretty damaging allegations about the company financing $SPCX competitor (OpenAI + Stargate). I wonder if there’s any more nuance these claims or if it’s false.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If you look at CW laser ASPs for AI data centers, the pricing differences are pretty substantial: 70mW: ~$3–4 100mW: ~$4–6 (Source Photonics channel checks). With some premiums apparently going up to $7-$9 range with the recent shortage for pluggables. 120–150mW NPO: ~$15–20 350mW UHP CW: ~$40 (Nomura) 400mW UHP CW for NPO/CPO: ~$50–75 (Mizuho) With former communication laser chips going from 20-50 cents. The pricing and gross margins of these players go up with each architectural shift (60%+ for CPO lasers). And go up even more depending how far down the stack you go (selling ELSFP was ~2.5x revenue content) In terms of how I see the landscape now: - $COHR is probably the best risk adjusted laser player now, for people who don't like uncertainty. Their new $20B LTA is very substantial. - $LITE pretty negative now given the valuation overhang from $MRVL acquisition. Operationally very opsitive. - $AAOI has extreme demand visibility (likely $6-$9B in new LTAs from just 1 quarter), but credible execution uncertainty. They've also been focusing on pluggables + bottlenecked by DSPs, rather focusing on UHP CPO laser merchant markets. But I think if markets see a new $5B-$7B LTA that they're in late stage discussion for... and see the $4.4B MC. Pretty sure that's a catalyst for recovery. The demand doesn't disappear but timeline shifts back a few months. AOI also signaled DSP as the main bottleneck, last quarter it was TIAs, so other different component players that are interesting. - $SIVE has extreme capacity expansion (300m laser capacity targeted in total). The economic implications that they won't disclose are likely enormous relative to their MC, even if they sell $3 70mW lasers to China pluggable players. But there's a qualification uncertainty to fill the gap, that markets have punished the company for. Especially when management communication amplifies uncertainty, despite the ongoing shortage. Right now entire AI trade is going up and down together though.

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