New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Thursday, November 12, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which makes tungsten and molybdenum parts for U.S. missiles and jets, saw its main division's gross margin rise to 31.8% in Q3 from 20.1% a year earlier, and management credits the jump mainly to how it bought and priced tungsten during Q1 2026's price spike. Revenue rose 55.6% to a record $79.6M, and tungsten products went from 14.8% of $ELMT's shipments in Q3 2025 to 33.6% in Q3 2026, which the 10-Q attributes to (1) price increases tied to higher input costs and (2) more volume from aerospace and defense customers. Meanwhile, $ELMT's microwave products division, which makes radio-frequency systems rather than tungsten parts, grew revenue just 4.4%, and its gross margin fell to 26.1% from 30.7%. $ELMT values its inventory on a first-in, first-out (FIFO) and average-cost basis, so Q3's cost of goods sold still reflected tungsten bought earlier in the run-up, while $ELMT's selling prices had already risen with the market. Its $152.8M of inventory as of October 2, up from $69.7M as of December 31, equals ~8 months of Q3's cost of goods sold, so most of what's on hand was bought after prices took off. Since then, tungsten prices have stalled: European ammonium paratungstate (APT), the traded form of tungsten, was quoted at $2,500-3,100 per metric ton unit (MTU, 10 kg of tungsten trioxide) in the week to November 5, per Shanghai Metals Market, vs. $2,900-3,100 on September 10. Q3's adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.3%, up from 12.0% in H1 2026. Unless tungsten climbs again, I'd treat part of the jump as a timing gain that fades as inventory bought at 2026 prices flows through. In my July 2 write-up, I picked $ELMT as the safest way to own China's tungsten squeeze, since it makes the parts instead of mining the ore. Q3 shows $ELMT's margins still move with the tungsten price, just with a lag. $ELMT's own 2031 plan assumes APT at $1,500/MTU, 40-52% below the November 5 quote.
@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Initial reactions to $CRWV 3Q - Capex guide UP, with the low end raised to $37bn from $35bn. That implies $13-15bn in Q4 alone. Anyone here surprised? - $9bn of prepayments expected over the next 3 months. Cool, cheaper than the 15% unsecured debt. Some funding concerns alleviated, but that prepayment is not costless. - Margins improving. Adj EBITDA margin went to 62% from 59% in 2Q. Still ramping, though. - Backlog up $28bn to $132.5bn and contracted power up 900MW to 4.6GW. Contracted power up = more capex = more leases. - Debt up to $46.9bn, cash down to $4.1bn, and lease liabilities up to $18.7bn. Overall, not a whole lot changed about the story. Funding picture a bit better (prepayments, no equity, FCF not as bad) but commitments/capex keep growing. Let’s see how the call goes.
@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Initial reactions to $CRWV 3Q - Capex guide UP, with the low end raised to $37bn from $35bn. That implies $13-15bn in Q4 alone. Anyone here surprised? - $9bn of prepayments expected over the next 3 months. Cool, cheaper than the 15% unsecured debt. Some funding concerns alleviated, but that prepayment is not costless. - Margins improving. Adj EBITDA margin went to 62% from 59% in 2Q. Still ramping, though. - Backlog up $28bn to $132.5bn and contracted power up 900MW to 4.6GW. Contracted power up = more capex = more leases. - Debt up to $46.9bn, cash down to $4.1bn, and lease liabilities up to $18.7bn. Overall, nothing a whole lot changed about the story. Funding picture a bit better (prepayments, no equity, FCF not as bad) but commitments/capex keep growing. Let’s see how the call goes.
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

Of all the things in the $ANT IPO roadshow slide deck, there are THREE WORDS that really stood out to me: "FUNGIBLE COMPUTE POOL" (Slide 13) That's $AMZN, $GOOG, $NVDA, and $AMD. I doubt $NVDA shareholders think of their leading edge chips as "fungible" but the largest AI company does. Is there anything in the AI capital stack at this point that isn't "commoditized" or headed that way? The models, the chips, the shell, the hardware....

Investor Letters

All letters

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 4 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $45B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 5 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 83 of 286

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

375 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.