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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) paid US$6.5M for a package of assets from KGHM $KGHPF, the Polish copper giant, including McCreedy West, now its only producing mine, and Levack, its flagship restart project. It paid ~US$3.7M in cash and ~US$1.4M in shares at closing, with ~US$1.4M due on December 31, 2026. It could also owe up to US$16.9M in milestone payments as the mines reach commercial production, including US$4.2M for Levack. Counting the milestones at their US$4.7M fair value, Magna valued the consideration at US$11.2M against US$25.0M of net assets. That’s why its 2025 results include a US$13.8M “bargain purchase” gain (US$25.0M − US$11.2M). It also took on reclamation liabilities with a fair value of US$9.8M and a precious metals stream held by Franco-Nevada $FNV, the royalty and streaming company, which it booked as a US$22.6M liability at the acquisition. Here’s Magna’s pipeline, from production to exploration: → McCreedy West (producing): Run since March 2025. All of its 2026 guidance comes from the 700 Footwall Copper Zone. → Levack (restart study): Connected underground to McCreedy West and idle but maintained since KGHM stopped mining in 2019. → Crean Hill (permitted): Past-producing nickel, copper, and precious metals mine southwest of Sudbury, Ontario, with a pre-feasibility study (PFS) due in the first half of October. → Podolsky and Shakespeare (later): CEO Jason Jessup pencils in Podolsky as the fourth mine “probably sometime in 2029,” and says Shakespeare, which would need its own mill, is “probably 5 years down the road.” → Exploration: 584 km² of claims across the Sudbury Basin. Copper pays most of the bills. In H1 2026, copper made up 68.4% of McCreedy West’s metal revenue, nickel 10.3%, and platinum, palladium, gold, and silver 21.2%. So despite the ticker (NICU, for nickel and copper), Magna today is a copper producer with nickel upside. Magna doesn’t own a mill. It trucks McCreedy West’s crushed ore to the Clarabelle mill run by Vale $VALE, pays Vale a fixed price per ton for trucking and milling, and sells the ore to Vale on delivery. It also has an ore selling agreement with Glencore $GLNCY for Glencore’s Strathcona mill. Magna’s financial statements report just two significant customers, and with McCreedy West’s ore going to Vale, changes in Vale’s terms hit revenue directly. In Q2 2026, a retroactive adjustment to the Vale contract roughly doubled the smelting and refining charges taken out of Magna’s revenue, to US$2.9M from US$1.4M. Incoming CFO Greg Huffman expects the charges to normalize in H2 2026.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$PAHC: 9x cash flow. 26% ROE Animals have to be healthy whether the economy is good or bad, and livestock producers have an economic incentive to spend money on products that reduce mortality, improve feed conversion, increase yield or prevent disease. 22% Adj EBITDA margin. JPM $55 PT. The company operates through the following business divisions: Animal Health division manufactures and sells animal health products such as antibacterial, anticoccidials, nutritional specialty products and vaccines used in the animal health industry to treat or to prevent bacterial diseases to improve the animal’s health. Mineral Nutrition division manufactures and markets formulations and concentrations of trace minerals, such as zinc, manganese, copper, iron, and other compounds. Performance Products division manufactures and markets various specialty ingredients for use in the personal care, industrial chemical and chemical catalyst industries. The most tangible new initiative is the planned closure of Chicago Heights, Illinois. Phibro acquired the facility as part of the Zoetis deal, reviewed its manufacturing network and decided it no longer made economic sense to keep the facility open. Production is expected to cease in summer 2027, affecting roughly 100 employees. Production will be shifted to other Phibro facilities and selected third-party manufacturers. Phibro Animal Health Corporation Management says the point is straightforward: align manufacturing capacity with future needs, improve efficiency and strengthen competitiveness. Phibro Animal Health Corporation The company expects approximately $10m of one-time cash costs and about $10m of capex, with eventual annual EBITDA benefit estimated around $15–20m, largely from FY2028 onward Regulatory optionality: Brazil virginiamycin One of the most interesting hidden catalysts is virginiamycin in Brazil. FY2027 guidance assumes only minimal sales because Phibro has not yet obtained the required therapeutic indications. FY2026 virginiamycin sales in Brazil were roughly $27m. Management explicitly said a favorable regulatory result could therefore provide modest upside to guidance.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$FSBW: Bought Pacific West Bank in August for 30m. Exp +7.5% EPS growth in 2027 due to this. PWBK has a 92% deposit mix NOT CDs. (attractive b/c lower cost). First Bancorp a bit cyclical due to home lending, consistent double digit ROE, conservative way to play eventual housing rebound. The problem was not that Pacific West had no franchise. It had a recognizable Portland commercial-banking niche, a relatively attractive deposit base, and specialized relationships with SMBs, nonprofits, professional-services businesses and digital partners. The problem was scale. Management acknowledged that Pacific West's size and market position made both organic and strategic growth difficult, while the cost and complexity of running a regulated community bank had risen materially after 2008 and 2020.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.1B
Mispriced Assets 4 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.5B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

Quick note on LSAK and GRPN

Lesaka expects its Bank Zero acquisition to close by end-January 2027, though it could still close this calendar year.

GRPN $513M
Mispriced Assets 5 clicks

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $75BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 3 clicks

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