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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW of geothermal power by 2030.

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 1 click

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Everyone’s a long term investor for 2027, 2028, or 2029 onward Until their portfolio experiences volatility months in. I still think: - $RKLB could end up the next $SPCX - $NBIS has the potential to be the next hyperscaler - $SIVE has moonshot potential to be the next $LITE - 1-3x P/E memory companies and $AXTI substrate bottlenecks are more durable than markets think And that it’s stupid to sell single digit fwd P/E AI companies or promising longs. And rotate that into 5% growth towel resellers at 47x P/E. Or 180x cyber companies, just because they’re going up. I’ve seen $AMD go from the $3 valley of doom to $400 as people thought it could be the next $INTC / $NVDA. And been through the Bitcoin $1000 -> $18,000 -> $3000 -> $100,000 cycle. Not advice on how to position or trade, but anyone on extreme leverage during those times got wiped out. While the underlying assets sharply recovered later. I do think AI, Space, and Physical AI are the future. So, I’m remaining long, and using this time to maximize exposure to the winners
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

$AAOI earnings: - $1B-$1.5B LTA disclosed with a hyperscaler customer - 2nd LTA coming soon, worth 5x+ more (implying $5B-$7.5B), in its final stages. This LTA explicitly includes lasers, very material for AOI that they're moving to supplying merchant lasers. - "The demand is exceptional, unprecedented. I do not know what kind of superlatives to use to describe the amount of demand that we are seeing out there in the industry" Yeah this commentary doesn't sound like any optical demand would slowed down if it's "exceptional + unprecedented" - Rejected hyperscaler slowdowns from political changes with little effect. - AOI Can only meet 80% of demand, in case there's a kind of reduction, the demand would be bigger than AOI future capacity - Moving toward other financing methods than ATMs (thank god), US bank loans similar to what $NBIS is doing, I'd argue is positive, given FCF coming in later. - Delay in meeting capacity projections into H1 2027. $471m/month targets pushed back into H2 2027, due to electrical procurement and construction logistics, which existed before Texas governor changed. This part is negative part of the earnings call. To qualify this, I don't quite think hyperscalers would sign a $5-$7.5B LTA if they didn't think AOI couldn't deliver. - Near term Q4 guidance cut was DSP availability. AOI revised near term projections down slightly to $385M and $420M in revenue. Said DSP supply would ease early 2027 and that they're qualifying more suppliers. - Gave hiked H2 2027 capacity projections from their expansion, near term revision downward. - 4 to 5 ongoing UHP laser eval/quals for CPO UHP laser segment alone would far outweigh their $3.8B MC, especially if you're executing on multi billion dollar contracts with 60%+ gross margin laseres. TLDR: - Long term visibility improved a lot, with est. $6-$9B cumulative LTA contracts coming soon. - Shift toward supplying CPO lasers merchant is fundamentally material vs. just transceivers, and what I wanted to hear - Capacity guidance hiked into H2 2027, near term delays from electrical/DSP related procurement + installation. I still think we're reached peak fear levels, but wouldn't dismiss disappointing short term procurement delays + Q4 DSP bottlenecks. AOI likely signing an additional +$5-$7.5B in likely hyperscaler LTAs and entering merchant UHP CPO market dominanted by $LITE + $COHR. Factored in with the valuation drop has made medium-long term opportunities very compelling.

Investor Letters

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Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $136BICE $96B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

💥Tead-ering💥

Teads’ revenue fell 26% and its stock dropped 38% as Google AI summaries cut publisher referral traffic, worsening losses and straining its…

TEAD $17MGUTS $11M
PETITION 2 clicks

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $5.9B
Cannibal Stocks 2 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

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