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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Not always right on timing, but I'm pretty confident long term they'll play out. Just look at $AXTI, everyone thought it was a dead company last year and InP substrates were a commodity. -> Q4 2025 gross margins: 20.9% -> Q1 2026: 29.6% -> Q2 2026: 44.9% -> Q3 2026: 56.0% -> Q4 2026: 60%+ est. With legacy memory like $ESMT, I did guess earnings correctly, they made a whopping $331M+ net income relative to $1.9B MC But stock still dropped somehow... but eventually as time passes out I'm personally confident majority will play out directionally right.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

This aged pretty well, when I said this last year in 2025, Clickhouse was a $6.7B company... Now as an update, their secondary valuation sits around ~$50B, which $NBIS owns 25%+ of. I've always liked Nebius the most because sum of parts, with all their lesser known subsidiaries growing alongside their core neocloud business. Including Avride (self-driving), Clickhouse, Toloka, and other subsidiaries that they owned. This year Nebius also acquired: - Tavily (web search and retrival) - Clarifai (Inference orchestration) Which scale independently as well (the others were integrated into Nebius Token Factory). Hard to view $NBIS as just another neocloud when it has billions in scaling value outside its core infrastructure business.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

In June, Alphabet $GOOGL surprised the market by announcing the mother of all equity raises. The plan was to raise $80 billion, consisting of $15b in convertible preferred stock and $25b in common stock, followed by a $40b ATM set to start in Q3. The official reason was to fund AI Capex and pay taxes on employee stock compensation. The timing seemed obvious … they wanted to get ahead of a liquidity crunch as SpaceX $SPCX, OpenAI, and Anthropic lined up their IPOs. SpaceX went public in June, and Anthropic’s November IPO could raise up to $64.4b, with shares expected to start trading on Nasdaq as $ANT on November 19. We recently wrote about how the typical IPO underperforms by ~20% on a 3-year horizon. This effect was more pronounced when companies were unprofitable, resulting in an average underperformance of 30%. Companies like $SPCX are not set up for patient buy-and-hold investors. Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. Passive investors will be forced to buy shares just after the initial IPO pump, and just before the accelerated unlock. There’s a 200-year history of finance bros dumping on retail. SpaceX simply figured out how to do it at scale.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
ABG · long

Asbury Automotive Group INC

Asbury Automotive Group's changed setup and underperformance versus other public dealers form the basis for a renewed long thesis.

ABG $3.6B
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