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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW of geothermal power by 2030.

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 1 click

From X

@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

I’m just calling out what I see with a failure in corporate communication, when so much is at stake. I’m really not sure why SK Hynix/Samsung representing SK’s economy let narratives of memory oversupply be dominated by their own customers on X. Or why $CBRS, which lost billions in valuation after the short seller report, is waiting for an analyst question in earnings to fix the damage Or why many of the “guppies” that would face a death in the Neocloud market aren’t actively fighting back against that claim here. A lot of narratives and claims originated and were distributed via X. Even if you don’t like Elon or X, even the Democratic Party combats narratives here as seen with the ratio on the VP’s New York post I don’t see why this can’t be done with AI companies calling BS on $4 B300 price gluts.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$MFC the spotlight has shifted off private credit but the issues have not gone away. MFC is in my opinion one of the more overlooked violators stuffing their life insurance investments with outsized exposure to private credit and cre. Just look under the hood of their earnings tonight. "𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬? Alternative long-duration assets missed expected returns by $153 million post-tax, marking six straight negative quarters and $1.35 billion of cumulative shortfalls by our math. Keeping unchanged return assumptions turns recurring investment shortfalls into excluded below-the-line charges every quarter."
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Yes $AAOI had a massive InP substrate purchase order earlier, and I don’t believe all of that is going toward transceiver lasers that Rosenblatt modeled. I believe have the similar 60%+ GM UHP laser capabilities that $COHR $20B LTAs and $LITE $5B LTAs are primarily for. While having a MC of <$5B and we’ll see some announcements there later. As for $SIVE, it’s mainly about qualifications given they have the capacity now with foundries + 100m laser expansion plan. $MRVL + $LITE gives it an extremely clear window of opportunity as well, alongside current laser bottlenecks for qualifying players like $CRDO, Innolight, Cambridge, and hyperscalers. We’ll see what new partners they announce in earnings this month. Given both their tiny $600m, ~$4.9B MCs, I would not be surprised if their 2028 revenue exceeded their valuations.

Investor Letters

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Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $136BICE $96B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $5.9B
Cannibal Stocks 2 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

PWR $77BRIOT $6.6B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

Insider activity October 2026

Asian insider buying reached $2.9 billion in October, the highest since 2018, with South Korea and Thailand leading.

BKRKY $23B
Asian Century Stocks 2 clicks

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