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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

If $SPCX makes its own chips at Terafab, our model has a gigawatt of orbital compute costing about $10 billion to build, down from about $33 billion with purchased GPUs. In orbit, the silicon decides the returns more than Starship does. This comes from our SPCX Special View valuation model. It estimates how fast capacity comes online, limited by equipment supply and launches. The first gigawatt reaches orbit in 2027. Our Base case buys GPUs. Chips and racks are about 80% of the cost, launch about 11%. Each gigawatt earns $40 billion a year renting out compute through 2028, falling to $20 billion from 2031 as GPU-hour prices fall. Terafab is Musk's planned chip factory. In our Full Terafab case, chips and racks cost one-eighth as much, about a third of the total, and launch becomes the largest item at 37%. A customer like Anthropic would want its own chips rather than rent SPCX's. Terafab chips would most likely run SPCX's own AI models, sold through an API. We assume that earns 50% more. Over a seven-year satellite life, a gigawatt's net present value is about $88 billion with purchased GPUs, $111 billion renting out Terafab compute, and $172 billion running SPCX's own models. The fleet reaches 140 gigawatts in 2036. Multiplying 140 by $172 billion values SPCX at about $24 trillion. This counts the cost of building and launching the hardware, but not of developing SPCX's own models.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

How magnanimous of Michael Intrator at $CRWV to halt his 10b5-1 stocks sales. Checking filings. Looks like he sold 10MM shares for roughly $1B in gross proceeds (mostly this year). The three founders combined cashed out $3.3B of stock since the IPO. No doubt this stock can be a fantastic trading vehicle given its volatility (250% implied vol into the print), but if you're thinking of this in any longer term context, management already told you what they REALLY think of the business on a longer term horizon....
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

There's a lot of news about WT (3036) introducing their first CW DFB laser line card. More significant than people think for medium-long term. For economic impact and what revenue looks like: - $SMTC generated 74% of its revenue through distributors. $AMBA as another example, ~60-70% of their 2026 revenue went through this company. - With WT in specific, if you look at even a large company like $AVGO scaled: -> 13% of Broadcom revenue went through WT in 2020 -> 18% (2021) -> 20% (2022) -> ~21% (2023) -> ~28% (2024) -> now possibly up to ~46% (they stopped naming) Just showing how important the largest distributors in the world become to semi companies. Given how WT chairman attributed rapid growth coming from AI photonics demand (eg. DSPs to optical module makers): It becomes more interesting for a certain company that WT introduced their first CW DFB laser line card during an industry bottleneck.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

The Value Investor's SpaceX ($SPCX) : A Korean Preferred at 0.3x Book. Indrect exposure to SpaceX=~68% of price, Management Says It Wants the Gap Closed. 4% dividend, 4x conservative earnings. Brand advantage in a commodity indsutry. Fundamental Business does not earn from Space X at all 𝘈𝘭𝘴𝘰 𝘒𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘥’𝘴 𝘐 𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘩𝘺, 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘦! 𝘈𝘴 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘐'𝘮 𝘸𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 2.

Investor Letters

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $48B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks

Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks
MA · long

Mastercard

Mastercard trades near $495, about 18% below its $602 52-week high, framing a favorable long risk-reward case.

MA $586B
Value Investors Club 1 click

“Going Through Some Pain”

Dick’s Sporting Goods’ $2.4 billion Foot Locker acquisition nearly quadruples its store count and adds international exposure, risking a…

DKS $13B
TSOH Investment Research

The Monday Morning Briefing

Latticework’s weekly briefing spotlights discounted European assets including Barco, Bolloré, Brookfield and D’Ieteren, with catalysts…

BN $97B
Latticework by MOI Global 4 clicks

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