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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

There's a lot of news about WT (3036) introducing their first CW DFB laser line card. More significant than people think for medium-long term. For economic impact and what revenue looks like: - $SMTC generated 74% of its revenue through distributors. $AMBA as another example, ~60-70% of their 2026 revenue went through this company. - With WT in specific, if you look at even a large company like $AVGO scaled: -> 13% of Broadcom revenue went through WT in 2020 -> 18% (2021) -> 20% (2022) -> ~21% (2023) -> ~28% (2024) -> now possibly up to ~46% (they stopped naming) Just showing how important the largest distributors in the world become to semi companies. Given how WT chairman attributed rapid growth coming from AI photonics demand (eg. DSPs to optical module makers): It becomes more interesting for a certain company that WT introduced their first CW DFB laser line card during an industry bottleneck.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

The Value Investor's SpaceX ($SPCX) : A Korean Preferred at 0.3x Book. Indrect exposure to SpaceX=~68% of price, Management Says It Wants the Gap Closed. 4% dividend, 4x conservative earnings. Brand advantage in a commodity indsutry. Fundamental Business does not earn from Space X at all 𝘈𝘭𝘴𝘰 𝘒𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘥’𝘴 𝘐 𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘩𝘺, 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘦! 𝘈𝘴 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘐'𝘮 𝘸𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 2.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

You heard 10x demand for compute > supply from $CRWV today. Hearing from $TSM today on Nikkei Forum: "The demand on our leading node [most advanced] silicon is insatiable" Customers "want to get [their] hands around any compute capability they can have. It's truly an insatiable environment." Q: Whether AI demand was slowing? A: "we did not see any sign of slowdown" Q: How demand compared with TSMC’s ability to supply A: "the demand actually is still far above our capability today to supply." TSMC identified power and substrates as bottlenecks customers were encountering. On the mid-to-high-50s annualized growth estimate for AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029. Wei said "it probably will be higher." Describing things as "insatiable" from a traditionally conservative company... doesn't quite look like any collapse in AI demand.

Investor Letters

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Research update

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No title

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UHS · long

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Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

UHS $11B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

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The Five Deals That Made Apollo

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In Conversation: NVIDIA

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NVDA $4.6T
Aurelion Research 1 click

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