Expert Call | Lumentum & Marvell Deal
Marvell’s all-stock acquisition of Lumentum targets optical supply, DSP synergies and AI data-center demand, while adding fab integration, customer-retention and regulatory risks.
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
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From X
Deep Sail Capital on X
Scale across means linking data centers that are physically apart, so it requires switches and architecture that are extremely reliable and consistent. This becomes more important as training runs get bigger and inference spread out across distributed data centers. $ANET win in this market
Asif Suria on X
Maybe Jensen will mount a comeback the way @vishal_better did with $BETR It would be surprising if the board decides to oust him from $NVDA. What would this mean for the greater AI bubble with all the circular financing and such.
@DeepSailCapital Deep Sail Capital on X
I’m looking to short a lot of shitcos if they run here: $RGTI $IONQ $ACHR $QBTS just look at my Shortlist for names.
Deep Sail Capital on X
$QNT in Dec 1 Lockup. It trades at an insane valuation of 300 P/S as the market share count doesn’t count the economic interests currently not converted by Honeywell and Others.
@DeepSailCapital Deep Sail Capital on X
$SHLS & $ARRY Merger / Short Report Review
Investor Letters
All letters- Asset Value Investors Ltd October 2026 4347 $112M6727 $597M
- Sandon Capital — Activist Fund October 2026 FWD $134MSPSY $111M
- Minotaur Capital October 2026 CROX $7.3BHUT $7.5B
- Bell Asset Management October 2026 CRH $64BEXPGF $34B
- Lakehouse Capital Small Companies Fund October 2026 COGZF $429MFNCHF $530M
- Lakehouse Capital Global Growth Fund October 2026 ADYEY $31BNOW $107B
- Spheria — Global Smaller Companies Fund month ended 31 October 2026 SFM $4.5BSN $32B
- Forager Funds Management October 2026 OFX $71MPLT $95M
WaterBridge Q3 Update: Speed Ramp Powers Record Quarter and Datacenters on the Horizon
WaterBridge grew Q3 revenue 16.9% year over year as Speedway Phase I lifted produced-water volumes, while pursuing large-scale data center…
Lumen Technologies (NASDAQ: LUMN) Stock Rating: Upgrade To Accumulate After Q3 FY12/26 Earnings
Lumen was upgraded to Accumulate after Q3 revenue fell 12% to $2.7 billion, while strategic business revenue rose 10% and reached 55% of…
A Call with Cogent ($CCOI) CEO Dave Schaeffer: Data Centers, the $700M Refi and Life After T-Mobile
Cogent expects to replace roughly $100 million of T-Mobile payments ending in 2028 through cost cuts and high-margin on-net sales, while…
My largest position is now a healthcare stock with 195% upside to my target
An unnamed healthcare company became the portfolio’s largest position at 8%, with a $130 target implying 195% upside despite broken…
TransMedics: 2027 Setting Up To Be A Pivotal Year
TransMedics targets multi-organ transplant growth through 2027 trials, OCS Kidney and European expansion after Q3 revenue rose 41% to $203…
Conviction Queue 
I Called the YB CFO. Here’s What I Learned.
Yuanbao’s CFO says China’s new online-insurance rules target abusive sales practices, while Beijing increasingly frames commercial health…
Village Farms Well Positioned For Entry Into Texas Cannabis Markets (Rating Upgrade)
Village Farms posted record quarterly cannabis revenue, driven by international sales and expanded capacity, while positioning for Texas…
Alan Sumler 1 click
[scuttleslops] FICO, PAYC, ABNB, TREX, Anthropic
FICO is licensing mortgage scores directly to resellers, seeking pricing control as VantageScore competition and regulatory scrutiny…
Cat-Scratch Fervo
Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…
Adobe: A Cash-Secured Put Turns AI Fear Into A Lower Entry Price
Adobe's compressed 10x non-GAAP EPS multiple reflects AI monetization and ARR-growth concerns; cash-secured puts at $210 or $200 target a…
Tim Travis 1 click
SIRI · long Sirius Xm Holdings INC
SiriusXM, SIRI, combines a 32% EBITDA margin with 3.6x net leverage and a 16% free-cash-flow margin despite elevated capex.
Updates: Judges Scientific, Jet2, XPEL (JDG, JET2, XPEL)
Judges Scientific reported 6% organic revenue growth, but US sales fell 22%; NIH funding release and a Geotek coring expedition are its key…
Why Nike ($NKE) Won't Make It Into the Bearhold Universe
Nike is excluded from Bearhold’s universe because cultural relevance and consumer taste drive demand, leaving its revenue model less…
Future-proofing A Portfolio (An Excerpt From Our Recent Letter)
Eagle Point favors McKesson, AutoZone and other physical-network businesses with durable demand, scale moats and lower disruption risk than…
Under the Hood, Copart ($CPRT)
Copart’s salvage-auction network pairs scarce storage land with global online bidding, supporting insurer returns and a durable moat…
The $55,000 Shell Company That Became a $480M Healthcare REIT
Chiron Real Estate (XRN), a $480 million healthcare REIT, trades at 7.3 times AFFO amid a ticker change, reverse split, dividend cut and…
AXT’s Tongmei Problem: Great Asset, Fragile Economics
AXT’s 85.5%-owned Tongmei depends on offshore pricing, export approvals and transfer-pricing economics despite AI-optics demand.
Cracks in the Coconuts: Why Vita Coco’s ($COCO) Growth Narrative is Spoiling
Vita Coco’s growth narrative is deteriorating, supporting a short thesis on COCO.
Portfolio Update March 2026
Portfolio adds Nomad Foods and Judges Scientific, increases Constellation Software, trims Roper, and exits UnitedHealth after a 4.57% March…
It Pays to be a Winner: Our ML model and social research layer just went 14-for-16 on Nike’s Q3 call. (Kalshi, Mentions)
First Strike Research’s ML and social-sentiment system correctly called 14 of 16 Nike Q3 Kalshi contracts, reporting 208¢ net P&L.
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Sectors
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
