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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Convequity on X

The usual explanation for CoreWeave’s credit pressure is that its loans outlast its customer contracts. The filings say otherwise. All of $CRWV’s debt is due before its current contracts end, though only just: $14.6B of notes falls due in 2031-32, as the last contract cash comes in. That distinction matters. For a GPU cloud, debt that outlives its contracts is the dangerous kind. When a contract ends the chips are old, and there is no contract left to borrow against. CoreWeave’s real problem is speed. Each new build needs fresh capital before the last one has paid for itself, and almost all of the debt sits with the parent company. $IREN has the opposite shape. Its Microsoft project loan is matched to the contract. The risk is $6.3B of convertible bonds due 2031-33, mostly after its contracted cash has ended. If IREN’s stock is high by then, bondholders will likely swap the bonds for shares. If it’s low, IREN has to repay them in cash. Which leads to an odd conclusion: slower AI demand growth could help both. Fewer new commitments would give finished projects time to earn back their cost.
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Convequity on X

$UMC's nearer-term driver is its 12nm process with $INTC, and our longer-term view is that logic folding could make chips on its existing processes faster and more energy-efficient. UMC reports Q3 earnings tomorrow, while production is targeted for 2027 at Intel's Arizona factories. The partnership combines UMC's foundry experience with Intel's manufacturing capacity, giving UMC access to U.S. production without building an American factory. The immediate attraction is winning customers and expanding its business. Folding replaces long horizontal connections with shorter vertical ones, so signals need less time and energy to move. That could make chips built on established processes more capable without matching the newest transistor nodes. Older processes are, in our view, a more manageable starting point for this prospective thesis: UMC would still need to solve bonding, heat removal and reliable production, but it would not also be introducing a new transistor process.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $48B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks

Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

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