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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Quick follow-up on $CRWV after the call...funding picture better than the release suggested: > Next DDTL expected to be IG at 7-7.5% and fund 90%+ of capex. Hasn’t launched yet. > The $9bn of prepayments is from signed contracts. $3bn+ of it is from recontracting existing GPUs. > 2027 capex flat at $37-39bn if they only build committed backlog. > Ampere and Hopper pricing up 30-50% QoQ, above original contract prices. That’s shortage pricing though. > ST deals at ~$40mm/MW vs $20-25mm on 4-5 yr contracts. > No new unsecured through 2027 at current yields and <$5bn of parent-level capital needed. They didn’t say where that comes from. ATM? > No downside case given for what happens if supply catches up. NT funding concern mostly answered. The open question is whether today’s pricing lasts. Thoughts?
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Once a year, Bill Ackman @BillAckman of Pershing Square bangs the drum on Fannie Mae $FNMA and Freddie Mac $FMCC. They are high-quality, low-risk businesses currently trading at 1.5x earnings and operating under state conservatorship, even though Trump repeatedly mentioned taking the companies public. Ackman mentioned what a member of President Trump's administration said: “We can’t take the risk of the Communists taking control of Fannie and Freddie”. Bill’s letter makes his tweets look short by comparison, but it offers some good insights.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which makes tungsten and molybdenum parts for U.S. missiles and jets, saw its main division's gross margin rise to 31.8% in Q3 from 20.1% a year earlier, and management credits the jump mainly to how it bought and priced tungsten during Q1 2026's price spike. Revenue rose 55.6% to a record $79.6M, and tungsten products went from 14.8% of $ELMT's shipments in Q3 2025 to 33.6% in Q3 2026, which the 10-Q attributes to (1) price increases tied to higher input costs and (2) more volume from aerospace and defense customers. Meanwhile, $ELMT's microwave products division, which makes radio-frequency systems rather than tungsten parts, grew revenue just 4.4%, and its gross margin fell to 26.1% from 30.7%. $ELMT values its inventory on a first-in, first-out (FIFO) and average-cost basis, so Q3's cost of goods sold still reflected tungsten bought earlier in the run-up, while $ELMT's selling prices had already risen with the market. Its $152.8M of inventory as of October 2, up from $69.7M as of December 31, equals ~8 months of Q3's cost of goods sold, so most of what's on hand was bought after prices took off. Since then, tungsten prices have stalled: European ammonium paratungstate (APT), the traded form of tungsten, was quoted at $2,500-3,100 per metric ton unit (MTU, 10 kg of tungsten trioxide) in the week to November 5, per Shanghai Metals Market, vs. $2,900-3,100 on September 10. Q3's adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.3%, up from 12.0% in H1 2026. Unless tungsten climbs again, I'd treat part of the jump as a timing gain that fades as inventory bought at 2026 prices flows through. In my July 2 write-up, I picked $ELMT as the safest way to own China's tungsten squeeze, since it makes the parts instead of mining the ore. Q3 shows $ELMT's margins still move with the tungsten price, just with a lag. $ELMT's own 2031 plan assumes APT at $1,500/MTU, 40-52% below the November 5 quote.
@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Initial reactions to $CRWV 3Q - Capex guide UP, with the low end raised to $37bn from $35bn. That implies $13-15bn in Q4 alone. Anyone here surprised? - $9bn of prepayments expected over the next 3 months. Cool, cheaper than the 15% unsecured debt. Some funding concerns alleviated, but that prepayment is not costless. - Margins improving. Adj EBITDA margin went to 62% from 59% in 2Q. Still ramping, though. - Backlog up $28bn to $132.5bn and contracted power up 900MW to 4.6GW. Contracted power up = more capex = more leases. - Debt up to $46.9bn, cash down to $4.1bn, and lease liabilities up to $18.7bn. Overall, not a whole lot changed about the story. Funding picture a bit better (prepayments, no equity, FCF not as bad) but commitments/capex keep growing. Let’s see how the call goes.

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