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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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From X

@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

I’m just calling out what I see with a failure in corporate communication, when so much is at stake. I’m really not sure why SK Hynix/Samsung representing SK’s economy let narratives of memory oversupply be dominated by their own customers on X. Or why $CBRS, which lost billions in valuation after the short seller report, is waiting for an analyst question in earnings to fix the damage Or why many of the “guppies” that would face a death in the Neocloud market aren’t actively fighting back against that claim here. A lot of narratives and claims originated and were distributed via X. Even if you don’t like Elon or X, even the Democratic Party combats narratives here as seen with the ratio on the VP’s New York post I don’t see why this can’t be done with AI companies calling BS on $4 B300 price gluts.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$MFC the spotlight has shifted off private credit but the issues have not gone away. MFC is in my opinion one of the more overlooked violators stuffing their life insurance investments with outsized exposure to private credit and cre. Just look under the hood of their earnings tonight. "𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬? Alternative long-duration assets missed expected returns by $153 million post-tax, marking six straight negative quarters and $1.35 billion of cumulative shortfalls by our math. Keeping unchanged return assumptions turns recurring investment shortfalls into excluded below-the-line charges every quarter."
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Yes $AAOI had a massive InP substrate purchase order earlier, and I don’t believe all of that is going toward transceiver lasers that Rosenblatt modeled. I believe have the similar 60%+ GM UHP laser capabilities that $COHR $20B LTAs and $LITE $5B LTAs are primarily for. While having a MC of <$5B and we’ll see some announcements there later. As for $SIVE, it’s mainly about qualifications given they have the capacity now with foundries + 100m laser expansion plan. $MRVL + $LITE gives it an extremely clear window of opportunity as well, alongside current laser bottlenecks for qualifying players like $CRDO, Innolight, Cambridge, and hyperscalers. We’ll see what new partners they announce in earnings this month. Given both their tiny $600m, ~$4.9B MCs, I would not be surprised if their 2028 revenue exceeded their valuations.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

$COHR earnings transcript TLDR: Q: On $LITE + $MRVL merger. A. Customers will prefer an independent optical supplier without competitive conflicts (opportunity for other merchant laser suppliers) Q: Loop Capital asked about 2028 laser industry oversupply. A: No oversupply risk by 2028. Coherent’s entire current internal InP production is consumed by its own products while its expanding capacity. Q: On Chinese laser competition for CPO UHP lasers A: “We really only have one competitor” (hinting at $LITE). Q: On financing concerns for capacity expansion during this market scare A: Customer LTAs have prepayments, which are used for product capacity orders 2027 completely sold out, LTAs extend to 2030, customers placing orders into 2028. Q: On laser technology for CPO scale up from Bernstein, whether it’s VCSELs or CW lasers. A: CW for CPO scale out and scale up for 2026-2027. 2029-2030 sees scale in and chip to chip using micro-VCSELs, and 2028 opportunities for NPO scale up. So technology of choice is CW for CPO. - Coherent is seeing pricing power and raising margin targets, supporting view optical players get additional leverage for margin expansion - Massive new $20B 5Y LTA, anchored by UHP CW lasers, with other optical products mixed in - demand comes from growth in DC and conversion of copper interconnects to optics. The latter is bandwidth requirements, independent of DC growth. slower compute growth can coexist with sharply rising optical content per system TLDR: - nothing quite showing optical demand like $20B in LTAs anchored by high power lasers from 1 customer alone (not your frontier labs type commitments) - no industry wide laser oversupply risk by 2028 for InP lasers/EML - financing funded by revenue from LTAs and purchase orders. - doesn’t see Chinese competition for high end lasers, commentary casts doubts over China capability + capacity expansion claims - CW lasers weapon of choice for CPO, blended margins going up for optical players - optics more isolated in the event of a DC slowdown Quite wild to see fundamentals of optical players improve so much, while overall valuations crash.
@DeepSailCapital 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

Just a bit of my thoughts on the AI datacenter buildout: Texas has already stopped new data centers back in August, and that's the most important fact the market missed today. 1/ Abbott paused it in August. ERCOT stopped energizing new data centers of 75 MW or more and shelved a ~200 GW study batch. TCEQ stopped issuing permits. Hinojosa's moratorium will keep the existing pause in place on New permits instead of lifting it. She also said it targets new permits, not projects already under construction. So that just means next project goes to a friendly locale, not Texas. 2/ Ohio was already moving. DeWine froze the data center sales-tax exemption for new projects back in June. Acton's conditional moratorium is a pay your own power costs, use union labor, build on brownfields. That's a cost hit, not a ban outright. 3/ Congress can't ban anything. The Sanders/AOC moratorium bill would face a Trump veto through Jan 2029. 4/ What's already built or nearly built keeps going: • Stargate Abilene: 4 of 8 buildings live, the rest due this month • Fairwater Atlanta: ~636 MW running • Rainier Indiana: ~1 GW running • Hyperion Louisiana: not in play at all About 56.7 GW is under construction nationally and largely outside the pledges. 5/ Demand didn't change this week: • $ANET Q3 revenue $3.66b, +58.5% y/y, $360m above guide • $CLS guiding 2027 to $40b, roughly double 2026 • $MOD data center sales +95%, record backlog, a $4b+ deal for 2027–29 • Hyperscalers are on pace for $803b–$828b of 2026 capex and they're guiding 2027 higher 6/ The market half-figured it out. Texas-heavy builders and power names fell 7–23% ($HUT -23%, $VST -15%). Suppliers with national backlogs barely moved ($ANET -0.4%, $NVDA -0.8%). $NUAI is a zero now for sure. 7/ Where it's real: new 2027–28 capacity in TX/OH/GA gets slower and pricier, so it will shift to different locations. New projects go to friendly locales, TX/OH/GA lose out. 8/ AI component suppliers are still maxed out for the next few years, that demand doesn’t change, just where they ship it to does. 9/ Neoclouds still suck. Ain’t nothing gonna change that.

Investor Letters

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Quick Value #337 - Dana Inc (DAN)

Dana is combining with Eaton’s Mobility unit via a 1Q27 Reverse Morris Trust after selling a division, delevering and accelerating buybacks.

ETN $141B
Value Don't Lie 2 clicks

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $79B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 4 clicks

NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

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