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Monday, November 9, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$AAOI signs $194.4M/year contract with Yuunan Germanium. This is for 2027 alone, with a 5 year contract. Given an implied total of ~$970M in InP substrates over 5 years (before price hikes) Hmm just some thoughts: - AOI laser capacity expansion seems bigger than what’s disclosed based on procurement patterns? 180K wafers seems like an extreme amount compared to what’s needed for lasers within their own transceivers… if they can consume all of that So maybe we’ll hear about a new UHP laser contracts in earnings, after $LITE announced a $5B contract. - read through on $AXTI is positive, given they’ll probably be #1 in InP substrates manufacturing scale in the future + have contracts with $LITE and $COHR. - positive AOI was able to secure capacity during the bottleneck More spend is probably the boogeyman in the AI trade, but it’s a good signal for earnings.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The bitcoin miner turned AI data center developer, $DGXX, is at $2.13/share, down 46.3% since my August 16 update. Since then, it got a $200M debt commitment, syndicated by $GS, to finish its Alabama AI data center, and said Phase 1 (December) and Phase 2 (March 2027) remain on target. That’s good news if the loan closes (expected within 90 days), since I said in August it would decide whether $DGXX can fund the rest of the build with debt or has to keep selling stock. CEO Michel Amar told Frank Curzio of Curzio Research in a November 2 interview that debt financing “seems to be a little bit scarce these days” and has slowed $DGXX down. Regardless, he said all the equipment for both phases is already bought, with the chillers installed. With ~$135M of cash as of October 13 and no debt at June 30, $DGXX’s EV is ~$81M. Amar also said he wants $DGXX at $500M+ of yearly revenue within 36 months, with its leased data center business earning ~60% EBITDA margins and ~25% cash flow margins after debt service. As of August, only ~$140M of the $250-300M of ARR it targets by Q3 2027 was contracted. $DGXX has used $174.5M of its $175M ATM program, and its share count has been flat at 101.4M since August 14. So if the loan falls through, selling more stock would take a new filing. The October 13 release also says $DGXX sold no ATM shares in Q3, though its Q2 10-Q shows it sold 2.85M after June 30 at an average of $3.95, well below the stock’s $5.45 close on June 30. So I’d track dilution through the share count in the Q3 10-Q, not management’s comments. Its November 2 proxy also asks shareholders to expand its stock award pools to 20.3M shares from 16.3M (20% of shares outstanding), with 11.9M free for new grants, after Amar and his son, President Alec Amar, were awarded a combined $19.5M in 2025 (~9% of today’s market cap), mostly in stock and options. That’s more dilution than I’d like after the share count rose 46% this year, to 101.4M from 69.4M at the end of 2025, and the proxy would also let the board raise the RSU pool 10%/year from 2028 without another shareholder vote. Both Amars have bought $166K of stock in the open market since August, most recently 20,000 shares at $2.76 by Michel Amar on October 14, but that’s small next to the $19.5M they were awarded in 2025. Q3 results come out November 13.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 4 clicks

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