Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Monday, November 9, 2026

Back to the front page

Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

I think the Oracle credit story could look very different in 2028 and 2029 from what the market is pricing today. $ORCL has priced $10 billion of stock and $10 billion of bonds to fund its AI buildout. Management expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028. The interesting part is how Oracle gets there. AI customers need the capacity, and those customers also have relationships with the suppliers building the infrastructure. Customer prepayments and supplier financing can move some of the funding further upstream rather than leaving Oracle to finance everything itself. I'd also watch whether support can extend further up the supply chain. The final cost of a data center is not the same as the underlying cost of the components, so there may be room for suppliers or their suppliers to provide credit backing with less exposure than the headline project value. The actual contracts and who bears losses matter here. Oracle's five-year CDS has been trading close to 300 basis points. I'm curious about the other side of that trade: who is underwriting the protection, and what happens if Oracle reaches positive free cash flow and the fear around AI infrastructure financing eases? Selling protection is still a risky bet. A premium can look attractive right up until the underlying credit deteriorates, and spreads can widen before the trade works. But if Oracle delivers the capacity and its customers pay for it, I think the picture in 2028–29 could be very different from today's gloomy consensus.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Interesting catalyst situations I'm tracking into year-end: $FLEX – Axiom targets at Innovation Day (11/10) $KBR – KBR/Trinzic investor days (11/11–12) $WFRD – Delaware redomicile, S&P add? (11/13) $BAYN – Roundup settlement approval (any day) $VOYA – TCIM no-confidence vote (11/24) $PNW – APS rate case order (late Nov) $LYV – Tunney ruling + post-trial motions $MTN – ISS/GL on Oasis slate (early Dec) $COO – Q4 print under interim chair, Jana pushing a sale What am I missing?

Investor Letters

All letters
UHS · long

Universal Health Svcs INC

Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

UHS $11B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $12B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 76 of 280

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

359 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.