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Monday, November 9, 2026

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Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

I think the Oracle credit story could look very different in 2028 and 2029 from what the market is pricing today. $ORCL has priced $10 billion of stock and $10 billion of bonds to fund its AI buildout. Management expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028. The interesting part is how Oracle gets there. AI customers need the capacity, and those customers also have relationships with the suppliers building the infrastructure. Customer prepayments and supplier financing can move some of the funding further upstream rather than leaving Oracle to finance everything itself. I'd also watch whether support can extend further up the supply chain. The final cost of a data center is not the same as the underlying cost of the components, so there may be room for suppliers or their suppliers to provide credit backing with less exposure than the headline project value. The actual contracts and who bears losses matter here. Oracle's five-year CDS has been trading close to 300 basis points. I'm curious about the other side of that trade: who is underwriting the protection, and what happens if Oracle reaches positive free cash flow and the fear around AI infrastructure financing eases? Selling protection is still a risky bet. A premium can look attractive right up until the underlying credit deteriorates, and spreads can widen before the trade works. But if Oracle delivers the capacity and its customers pay for it, I think the picture in 2028–29 could be very different from today's gloomy consensus.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Interesting catalyst situations I'm tracking into year-end: $FLEX – Axiom targets at Innovation Day (11/10) $KBR – KBR/Trinzic investor days (11/11–12) $WFRD – Delaware redomicile, S&P add? (11/13) $BAYN – Roundup settlement approval (any day) $VOYA – TCIM no-confidence vote (11/24) $PNW – APS rate case order (late Nov) $LYV – Tunney ruling + post-trial motions $MTN – ISS/GL on Oasis slate (early Dec) $COO – Q4 print under interim chair, Jana pushing a sale What am I missing?

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INVH · long

Invitation Homes INC

Invitation Homes owns more than 85,000 homes valued at $43 to $48 per share, versus a roughly $30 share price, with occupancy above 96%.

INVH $16B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Brookfield of Dreams

Brookfield is recasting itself from an industrial owner into a $1.3 trillion asset manager and insurer, betting AI infrastructure can…

BN $96B
Net Interest

Groceries, Aggregators, and Agents

DoorDash's grocery push targets a shift from weekly stock-up trips to frequent online fill-in orders, though smaller baskets complicate…

DASH $86B
MBI Deep Dives 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/18/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers organized retail crime, Home Depot’s centralized operating missteps under Bob Nardelli, and research updates on…

HD $357B
TSOH Investment Research

Deep Dive: Grab Holdings ($GRAB)

Grab generates 53% of revenue from delivery, 36% from mobility and 10% from financial services, using its Southeast Asian marketplace to…

GRAB $14B
Rebound Capital 1 click

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