Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

We listened to the $ROL call or just trading semis versus everything else because they Tok down guidance a second straight quarter and the implied growth in Q4 could go negative on residential. Big feline but stock is still expensive for what is an ongoing challenge to lead gen from LLMs but the other factor they didn't refer to is the PE competition. Seems like an opportunity to scale back in short somewhere closer to $25 seems correct incredibly odd to see it up after that call
@BlueDuckCap 8 clicks

BDC on X

$META said ARPU on Muse will eventually be higher than existing ARPU on family of apps. That's triple digit. Incredibly bullish for META if it happens - would 2x revenue at least, using low end of Zuck comments. But where does the share come from? Agentic shopping is not nearly enough GMV to take unless they take a substantial chunk of the TAM and fully disrupt companies like $AMZN. You start killing retail then you also kill your ad customers. Just seems like there are real problems with the napkin math playing out.
@convequity 8 clicks

Convequity on X

Nvidia's ($NVDA) own new programming language makes it easier to move AI code to rival chips. In December 2025 Nvidia launched CUDA Tile. In a tile language the programmer describes work as blocks of data and the compiler works out how to run it on whichever GPU it is given. Our read: Nvidia no longer writes code around the CUDA core. Code written for one GPU generation increasingly breaks on the next, so a higher-level language was the only practical way forward. Tile code moves easily to other AI chips. On 30 September DeepSeek released an Ascend version of TileLang, the open tile language it uses, so every TileLang operation in its training now runs efficiently on Huawei's chips, not just Nvidia's. Few investors have noticed. Our view: once the code that matters is written in tiles, the switching cost that supports Nvidia's pricing power falls.

Investor Letters

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
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