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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The two things I'm excited about are Gen G vs. T1... and new NASA's $10 Billion contract to begin settling on the moon. NASA selected: - $SPCX (SpaceX) - Blue Origin - $FLY (Firefly) - $LUNR (Lunar) - $LMT (Lockheed Martin Space) - $NOC (Northrop Grumman Space) - $VOYG (Voyager) - iSpace US to compete for future lunar delivery missions - $1.3B in launch and orbital transportation orders awarded to Arrow Science, Blue Origin, and Impulse Space. - $94 million for Blue Origin to deliver NASA's nuclear powered PROMISE rover - Existing CLPS 1 contract ceiling raised from $2.6B to $4.2B. - NASA also announced awards to Honeybee Robotics, a Blue Origin company, $RDW for a lunar power and communications tower
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Any rational person should lever themselves up until infinity on 0% convertible debt when rates are pushing 6%. You would be irrational to not do that. Especially if you are any good at capital allocation. How do you think $GME got $5bn of cash on the balance sheet and 10% of eBay. Oh and they made over $1bn in mark to market returns on eBay so far. And 6% on the remaining $5bn is $300 million of interest income per year. All for a zero percent convert that is still out of the money. One of the best capital allocation moves I’ve ever seen on Wall Street.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

When I do AI supply and demand modeling, everything ex-SPCX generally fits together and makes sense and is reasonably well funded. No individual large build looks too excessive because, for the most part, large projects are pre sold before they are built, or at least before they are completed… Anthropic can fund its ambitions for the next few years pretty easily with ARR and cash on hand. Even OpenAI is sitting on a mountain of cash and can fund the majority of compute with ARR. The hyperscale clouds are allocating between internal, lab, and enterprise use cases. This changed w/ $SPCX who is trying to build ~40% of 2026 capacity next year but without a secured buyer. Just a massive bet that industry capacity plans will undershoot realized demand by a wide margin. This is the most obvious way this becomes a glut. And everything else will mostly be contracted, with spcx holding most of the bag. They also have BY FAR the most financial upside if conditions remain tight, because of their chosen path to live and die by the spot market. But I find it puzzling that markets have really not challenged them more, particularly as broadly the risk of a cyclical peak comes into focus. When parties as risk seeking as OpenAI @sama have called them speculative (one of only 2-3 potential buyers of SPCX capacity…). Also SPCX two existing customers are abundantly clear that they view their contracts as short-term / bridge capacity and intend to churn off as new cheaper capacity comes online at ~1/5 of the price.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If someone asked me 10 years ago what I'd be doing in the future, Answering questions on Jensen + Spys banging each other and implications on the AI trade would not be in mind My response to that question is: how am i supposed to know? On AI trade implications: $NVDA probably wanted to sell more chips anyway (to China) for revenue and it's extremely unlikely this person had any effect on trade policies. The relationship might not even be true... anyway I'll wait until more news comes out.

Investor Letters

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks
SPGI · long

S&p Global INC

S&P Global (SPGI) is presented as a long idea, citing an opening to buy the well-known financial-information company.

SPGI $136B
Value Investors Club

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.9T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $21B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $287B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $287B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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