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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

At similar valuations we prefer $AVGO over $NVDA, because Broadcom has more room to beat expectations. A custom-chip order still needs lasers, optical and electronic chips, and packaging, and Broadcom supplies all of them. Separate suppliers each protect their own margin, so cutting total system cost is harder. Broadcom could also win custom-chip orders by assuring customers that the optical components needed to deploy them will be available. Google TPU volume adds a second large revenue source. Estimates put Google's TPU-related contribution at roughly $11 billion to $13 billion in 2025. Supply-chain estimates put Google's TPU v8 shipments at about 4.0 million units in 2026, rising to about 9.1 million in 2027. Assuming Broadcom supplies the remainder after MediaTek's allocation, that leaves a large expansion for Broadcom. Nvidia starts with a much larger share, so more of its business is exposed as customers develop alternatives.
@ACapitalLP 3 clicks

A Capital on X

Interesting special situation in $AKER.NO, which owns ~23% of Nscale. Despite the carnage in neoclouds, the FT reported last week that Nscale may still be targeting a $30–35bn IPO before year-end. What makes this interesting is the valuation disconnect. At ~NOK 1,150, backing out Aker’s other holdings and applying its historical ~22% HoldCo discount implies an ~$11bn valuation for Nscale. Below its $14.6bn March round and well below the proposed IPO range. In September, Third Point led a $3.36bn pre-IPO convertible financing alongside Nvidia, Apollo, Citadel and others. The notes reportedly convert at a double-digit discount to the IPO price, with a $30bn valuation cap on the conversion price. Not exactly a group of unsophisticated investors… At a $25–30bn IPO, I get ~27–39% upside assuming some HoldCo discount compression. Even at a $15bn IPO, the downside looks relatively contained under a historical discount assumption. Obviously the IPO could slip, financing and execution risks are enormous, and the broader neocloud unwind isn’t helping. But you can partially hedge the sector exposure with $CRWV / $NBIS shorts, leaving a more isolated bet on the IPO valuation and HoldCo discount...

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

ARM Q2 FY3/27 Earnings Review

Arm reported Q2 revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27%, as licensing rose 50% while royalties grew 8%; Q3 guidance calls for $1.54 billion.

ARM $181B
Cestrian Capital Research

AppLovin 3Q26: Business Update

AppLovin's 3Q26 revenue rose 55% year over year and margins reached 78.2%, driven by AXON model gains, while publisher bidding pressure…

APP $118B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

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