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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

When I do AI supply and demand modeling, everything ex-SPCX generally fits together and makes sense and is reasonably well funded. No individual large build looks too excessive because, for the most part, large projects are pre sold before they are built, or at least before they are completed… Anthropic can fund its ambitions for the next few years pretty easily with ARR and cash on hand. Even OpenAI is sitting on a mountain of cash and can fund the majority of compute with ARR. The hyperscale clouds are allocating between internal, lab, and enterprise use cases. This changed w/ $SPCX who is trying to build ~40% of 2026 capacity next year but without a secured buyer. Just a massive bet that industry capacity plans will undershoot realized demand by a wide margin. This is the most obvious way this becomes a glut. And everything else will mostly be contracted, with spcx holding most of the bag. They also have BY FAR the most financial upside if conditions remain tight, because of their chosen path to live and die by the spot market. But I find it puzzling that markets have really not challenged them more, particularly as broadly the risk of a cyclical peak comes into focus. When parties as risk seeking as OpenAI @sama have called them speculative (one of only 2-3 potential buyers of SPCX capacity…). Also SPCX two existing customers are abundantly clear that they view their contracts as short-term / bridge capacity and intend to churn off as new cheaper capacity comes online at ~1/5 of the price.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If someone asked me 10 years ago what I'd be doing in the future, Answering questions on Jensen + Spys banging each other and implications on the AI trade would not be in mind My response to that question is: how am i supposed to know? On AI trade implications: $NVDA probably wanted to sell more chips anyway (to China) for revenue and it's extremely unlikely this person had any effect on trade policies. The relationship might not even be true... anyway I'll wait until more news comes out.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

A $TSM Spokesperson has reportedly denied exploring 3D DRAM per Tom's Hardware. After a report yesterday from The Information stated TSMC's production plans were from $NVDA's request. The implications would have put TSMC in competition with $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung and set off narratives about TSm disrupting the biggest memory makers. There's something frustrating with there's market moving headlines both ways. It just creates more confusion and volatility... Especially if something (like $NVDA CEO honeypot allegations) or the TSM report yesterday turns out untrue.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

A $TSM Spokesperson has reportedly denied exploring 3D DRAM per Tom's Hardware. After a report yesterday from The Information stated TSMC's production plans were from $NVDA's request. The implications would have put TSMC in competition with $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung and set off narratives about TSm disrupting the biggest memory makers. There's something frustrating with there's market moving headlines both ways. It just creates more confusion and volatility... Especially if something (like $NVDA CEO honeypot allegations) or the TSM report yesterday turns out untrue.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$GTN ~$4.90. Joel Greenblatt always wanted to do an LBO, his way of doing one was finding very leveraged stocks. This is the ultimate public LBO. Gray owns local TV stations: the CBS/NBC/ABC/Fox channel in 117 US markets (~37% of homes), #1 rated in 78 of them. It gets paid three ways: local ads, fees cable and streaming companies pay to carry its channels, and a flood of political ads every other year. It is the most sensitive to political out of any broadcaster. Miller Value Partners’ latest 13F reported 7.24 million shares as of June 30, 2026, worth about $28.8 million at quarter end; the firm had increased the position by roughly 35% from the prior quarter. In recent Q they just pushed debt maturity to 2030 from 2028 ~$500M of equity on ~$6.3B of net debt + preferred. ~6.8x 2-yr avg EBITDA. Consensus FCF: $388M ‘26, $115M ‘27, $450M ‘28, or ~50% a year on average vs the market cap. The record 2026 political year ($630-640M) is going to debt: ~$1B of 10.5% notes refinanced or repurchased, another $175-200M paid down in Q4. Free options: FCC loosening ownership caps (more duopolies, M&A) and a future spectrum sale. $SPCX sensible buyer of part portfolio. Risks: core ads down mid-single digits ex-acquisitions, cord-cutting, and a former Gray VP sees retrans under “severe pressure” after 2028 (Alphasense). At 5.7x leverage the equity is a stub, so it cuts both ways. Miller Value Partners and Bill Miller Thesis: The GTN thesis is that the market was pricing Gray Television as a highly leveraged broadcaster in decline, while underestimating the cash-generating strength and value of its local stations and other assets. Miller Value Partners argued that: Gray’s local stations were often market leaders, giving the company a strong audience and an advantage in political advertising. Political ads, retransmission contract renewals, and growth in digital advertising could lift cash flow. The firm also saw potential in the Assembly production studio and, later, ATSC 3.0. That cash flow could pay down debt; if the market’s pessimism eased, the equity could be worth multiples of its then-current price. They acknowledged the debt and advertising-cycle risks. Their counterpoint was that near-term maturities were limited and that expected cash generation could support deleveraging. The particular forecasts changed over time: the 2023 letter estimated more than $2.5 billion of free cash flow over five years; the 2025 update estimated $2 billion-plus over five to six years. Those were the firm’s projections at the time, not realized results.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

Quick Value #322 - FuboTV (FUBO)

Fubo's Hulu Live merger leaves Disney with 70% ownership and resets its 2028 EBITDA target to $300 million; at $10, it trades at 4.2 times…

DIS $203B
Value Don't Lie

Deep Dive: Amazon (Updated)

Amazon’s AWS grew 28%, with a $364 billion backlog, supporting the case that up to $200 billion of annual AI capex can earn solid returns.

AMZN $2.9T
Rebound Capital

MercadoLibre: Valuation Model

MercadoLibre’s sum-of-the-parts model values commerce and payments on FCFF, credit on equity returns, producing a $1,980 base-case target…

MELI $77B
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