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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Some industry commentary regarding a few claims recently on memory + Softbank Turbine defaulting. - On claims that LTAs are "meaningless while prices fall": $MU: "strategic customer agreements cannot be unilaterally canceled. Customers are obligated to pay for their committed volumes whether they take delivery or not" "These are take or pay agreements and there are no contractual outs for our customers from these agreements" Regarding historical contracts breaking: "These LTAs that we used to have never had any binding terms." The new SCAs contain extensive contractual obligations Regarding Elon's claims on Softbank defaulting on Turbines: Question from Morgan Stanley to $GE Vernova CEO on whether they see cancellations or financing difficulties with counterparties on their turbine orders: “No… we are not” TLDR: - Micron states LTAs/SCAs are noncancellable take/pay (where counterparties are hyperscalers). And that these types are different from historical memory cancellations. - On Softbank turbine orders, GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik said it wasn't seeing customer financing disruptions, requests to exit turbine reservations, or slowdowns. Maybe Elon's claims are more narrow, but should be evaluated more closely given competitive interests vs. Softbank/OpenAI.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I found the technical discussion helpful, but investor messaging to be way too conservative. If you look at how $NVDA CEO describes CPO, Jensen states scale up is increasing optical volumes by 15x. $LITE and $COHR are quantifying that by describing $5-$20B agreements spanning 3-5 years out. Having this question, and not talking about Ayar, O-Net, Poet, or ELS partnerships. Then redirecting the question to near term pluggables seems off. The vision also needs work, “communications and sensing” semi company is very unexciting. It’s technically true, but there’s no vision being communicated on being the next $40B optical giant or what Sivers is going to be in the next 5 years that would attract long term holders. The core valuation Sivers gets is from optical opportunities, I also personally disagree that it’s helpful to loop back to former cellular relationships when talking about future $GFS volumes I disagree when you portray the company as “small” when Sivers 100m CW DFB capacity is coming online, alongside large foundry partners. Which is a material % of the world’s annual laser capacity. Investors want to hear about future economic opportunities and how you fill the gap with more qualifications during a bottleneck. Sivers has a tremendous opportunity for CPO/NPO/Pluggables but I’m afraid it’s not being communicated properly. It’s understandable here since EETimes is more technical oriented, but I hope this messaging gets communicated better in the next earnings call.

Investor Letters

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AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
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Boyz in the Hood

Robinhood’s AI agents, 24/7 equity trading and 10:1 crypto perpetual futures encourage higher retail trading velocity, leverage and…

HOOD $71B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 2 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #10: 8 Oct 2026

US aluminium tariffs, European glass automation and Foraco’s constrained drilling fleet create multi-year pricing tailwinds, with Century…

FSLR $21B
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