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Friday, November 6, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Sector action is bizarre today --- travel/discretionary (ex amazon (who posted very lousy prime sales) are surging), housing and adjacent like furniture ($w $wsm), biotech adjacent bid ($rgen, $medp) and waste stocks ($wcn). You want to derrick micron, I get it. And I get gas prices lower, market expects to fade out rate cuts that were priced moving forward as Warsh moves to trim mean/new data versus actually being hawkish, and some impact on a name like $hd off the housing bill. But all of these things are at the margin and known leading up to today --- so why target, kbh (on relatively inline to disappointing numbers yesterday) Expedia today versus yesterday? Market moves in very funny ways recently
@ActAccordingly 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

If you're wondering just how unusual this year has been, here's yet another way to look at it. TWENTY THREE S&P 500 stocks have increased 100%+ this year. That's by far the highest number for at least the past FORTY years (maybe all-time). The stocks that have doubled have contributed roughly 5-6% of the overall 8% gain YTD for the S&P 500. It is highly unusual for an S&P 500 stock to double. In most years, there are at most a few stocks that double. Of course the last time we saw a surge in the number of S&P 500 stocks that doubled was in 1999..... History suggests this type of unrelenting bid will not be sustained. As you look at the list below, you'll notice the only non-AI/semis/data center stock in the S&P 500 that has doubled is $MRNA, which was down (-90%+) from its COVID19 highs. If you're looking for doubles or 10-baggers going forward, perhaps it's time to look outside of the data center trade... $SNDK $WDC $STX $MU $INTC $DELL $MRVL $FLEX $AMD $AMAT $LITE $GLW $LRCX $TER $ON $COHR $MRNA $FIX $HPE $GNRC $KLAC $Q

Investor Letters

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ARM Q2 FY3/27 Earnings Review

Arm reported Q2 revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27%, as licensing rose 50% while royalties grew 8%; Q3 guidance calls for $1.54 billion.

ARM $181B
Cestrian Capital Research

AppLovin 3Q26: Business Update

AppLovin's 3Q26 revenue rose 55% year over year and margins reached 78.2%, driven by AXON model gains, while publisher bidding pressure…

APP $118B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

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