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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$NOW's latest earnings show how slowly SaaS companies are moving to outcome-based pricing. One big reason is that work is hard to price by outcome when the outcome is hard to verify. Outside coding, customer service looks like the most verifiable work, and Sierra and Intercom have done well charging per resolved conversation. You might expect NOW to do the same for resolved tickets, but its business now reaches far beyond ticketing. Many work outcomes play out over weeks or months, while outcome-based pricing tends to pay for short-term results. Making an enterprise's work fully verifiable could be one of the biggest sources of value ahead. We expect startups to target this space, and it could unlock the next wave of AI.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Yesterday we recorded a podcast covering two potential deal situations including rumors of Marvell $MRVL acquiring Lumentum $LITE. The deal was confirmed a few minutes before the podcast was uploaded to YouTube this morning. As a Marvell shareholder I was not particularly happy about this deal as I discussed in the podcast and the price action late last week and this morning confirms the market feels the same way. You can check out the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube here: https://t.co/DgbNJ12OYo
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

$LITE standalone would likely be up on earnings after their new $5B CPO/NPO announcement (separate from $NVDA). The margins on that are likely 60%+… which shows how profitable laser players would be at scale. (Greensboro alone would be $5B revenue/year) In terms of the $MRVL deal: - Extremely positive for Marvell strategically. Also makes remaining laser players very valuable - $LITE shareholders can cry though about the 1+ year overhang until deal goes through in 2028. There’s less independent price discovery as well since a lot of it will be pegged around 4.5 Marvell shares : 1 - I think Lumentum shareholders probably would be happier if Marvell shares didn’t crash before the deal was announced.. since it was originally valuing $LITE at $115B with a 23.9% premium. - Marvell dropping does show the downside of the deal straight away though, if it rose then $LITE shareholders might be a tad happier given valuation. Having a fixed dollar MC value floor probably would have been better than the 4.5x:1 ratio. There was a lot of long $LITE, short ___ pressuring other photonics valuations, so at least those trade pairs might unwind now

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Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks

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