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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit 4 clicks

Serenity on X

$TSM released earnings today. I was more curious about commentary given recent the market panic. For analyst Q&A rounds: Q: Citi explicitly challenged TSMC on AI financing, HBM, CoWoS, lasers and the risk of overbuilding capacity A: $TSM assessed CSP capex, DC construction conditions, customer financial conditions, and supply of critical components. Management's conclusion is still that "demand exceeds supply". As well as that AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%+ CAGR projection through 2029. This is a more meaningful statement since it addresses some concerns regarding recent selloff. Q: JPM asked if wafer supply could be tighter in 2027 than in 2026 (demand visibility) A: Wei (Chairman/CEO) stated $TSM even sends staff to verify DC construction progress on site. And after assessing all the factors, TSMC believes gap between supply and demand remains substantial. It could not determine whether the extent of the gap given customers continues to increase demand. Q: On pricing power: A: Wei responded that there is "no ceiling on TSMC's profitability" but that profits will not surge dramatically overnight. (Source: NextApple, Taiwanese press) Regarding earnings, very strong: as usual - TSMC record profits of $23.6B (68% Y/Y growth), and revenue jumping to $46.72B, beating expectations. - Q4 Guidance was $52.3-$54.3B revenue off 65-67% gross margins. TLDR: - No signs of any slowdown or collapse as AI demand far exceeds supply for foreseeable future. $TSM is probably the fundamental proxy/canary to how the overall AI semi trade is doing. - On financing concerns and fear of overcapacity showing up in semiconductor demand: $TSM specifically examined the risks investors are concerned about now and assessment still points to unmet demand. During the Q&A session, Wei said AI demand was "very, extremely strong," with absolutely no signs of slowing. Underlying AI semi supply chain growth is healthier than recent market panic suggest.
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations). Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities. If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement). With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

It's interesting to see Elon interacting with finance X accounts out of the blue. Then amplifying $CRWV financing concerns, Chinese memory flooding, to AI investors being gamblers recently. With $SPCX and $TSLA, I do think Elon is a visionary but from how it looks from the outside... Amplifying concerns about competitors does make their financing more difficult as a self-fulfilling prophecy. And multiple posts about Chinese memory flooding after calling Samsung/SK Hynix pricing extortion does harm these supplier valuations... The economic incentives of doing so probably benefits Tesla/SpaceX more in the long run, even if everything goes down together. There's merit to a lot of things (I've been voicing Coreweave concerns about debt interest + rate hikes for the longest time...). But much like high end memory flooding to nuances of "No crying in a Casino" when the $AVGO CEO comments were regarding OpenAI ARR datapoints... were missed. You can throw rocks at others when a glass house is propped up by passive index flows

Investor Letters

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New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

AMD Earnings Review

AMD reported $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, with Data Center sales up 97% to $8.5 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $17 billion.

AMD $660B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

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