Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

I'm surprised $AMZN leadership ever judged performance on token usage. It's a primitive metric. Tokens tell you what the AI cost. They say nothing about what it delivered. The measure that matters is ROI: outcomes against tokens, set for each function. Developers: DORA metrics against tokens. Deployment frequency, lead time, change failure rate and recovery time. Sales and marketing: pipeline and closed deals against tokens. Project teams: revenue earned or costs cut against tokens. IT: network and system performance against tokens. Uptime, latency and incidents. Faros, LinearB, DX and Jellyfish already set token spend against engineering output. I haven't seen anyone do it across the whole business in a way a CFO would trust. Whoever builds that can sell to every company with a rising AI bill.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Strange short report on Cerebras $CBRS. Wafer-scale power and thermal constraints are longstanding engineering challenges. They can force compromises on clock speed versus a smaller die. That doesn't mean unacceptable overall performance. CS-4 is getting more out of WSE-3T, with the same core count and SRAM capacity as WSE-3, through higher clocks and improved I/O. Cerebras attributes the higher clocks to better power delivery. My read is that earlier systems left performance on the table to stay within power and thermal limits. Directionally, Cerebras looks to be working through those constraints better than I expected. Higher clocks alone don't answer the lifespan allegation. I’d still want to know how representative those failures are of current systems. I also give weight to Oracle, OpenAI and AWS choosing to work with Cerebras.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$now bill is always selling and some people on here seem confused why the stock is down when they look at the numbers he directs you to. Wash away all of his puffery and the underlying business deteriorated - gross profit came in at 10%+ yoy (which I believe is the lowest ever) for the quarter. You can call anything revenue but it's ultimately about the gross profit dollars you bring in + the efficiency of your expense management, which if you look saw increases across the board with profit materially weakening. You can argue intangibles on the COGS but then you need to adjust the light crpo further to exclude all the inorganic revenue helping out in there (which the co did not strip out).....the street is not fooled, these were not great numbers. And swapping revenue to juice AI in a press release while total sales stays on trend is not going to work anymore, as one analyst put it best to Bill "I wanted to just zoom out a little bit and just talk about the momentum you're seeing on the AI ACV side. Gina as you noted, you've raised the guidance twice now to $1.7 billion in revenue. At the same time, if we look at just the broad story of cRPO, we could call it stable, maybe on an organic basis, modestly decelerating, but sort of generally stable. So my high-level question, Bill, is just when do you think the AI momentum will start to translate to overall top line acceleration, cRPO acceleration?" There are very different expectations when a stock doubles in a quarter in-between reporting results.....

Investor Letters

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Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

AMD Earnings Review

AMD reported $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, with Data Center sales up 97% to $8.5 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $17 billion.

AMD $660B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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