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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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AMD Earnings Review

AMD reported $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, with Data Center sales up 97% to $8.5 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $17 billion.

AMD $798B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

More on #nicotine: While the market potential in the US is many times larger than in Sweden and Norway, the dynamics are very different. In Sweden, the market is mature and largely saturated, with pouch growth mostly cannibalizing Snus. In the U.S., it is more fragmented and experimental. The large players include Philip Morris $PM’s Zyn, British American Tobacco $BTI’s Velo and Altria $MO’s On!. There are some niche brands, of which Alp is the most notable because of its promotion by Tucker Carlson. It is owned by a JV between Tucker and Turning Point Brands $TPB. TPB is widely covered in our Discord channel, mainly by KEDM subscriber @stonksbusinessman.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Icahn owns ~33% himself if you count the Nomura swaps. The new Ares credit agreement limits buyers to 35% of shares outstanding, so $MNRO can let the poison pill expire and Icahn can immediately move the Nomura swaps to himself OR he could keep them as swaps and add another 16%+ of shares instead.... I digressed there a bit, but the initial point was going to be that they already technically own essentially 50%. DOMO Capital owns 1-2% of the outstanding shares as well...
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Jassy said that $AMZN capex will increase meanigfully in 2027, which we know is off a base of $220B in 2026. Before the AI build, the average annual capex increase was ~$9B. A "meaningful" increase in 2027 would be $90-100B or so, putting 2027 capex around $315B. Given that OCF has also increased nicely, approaching $200mn annually exiting this year, and +34%. At what point does the story, or will it, become about 2028 and 2029 positive FCF inflection? Even if capex stays high (say $300B which is crazy but who knows), assuming OCF growth continues which seems reasonable, we start to look at substantial FCF most likely hitting in 2028. There's a path to $450B in OCF (2029/2030) (less $300mn in capex equalling $150B in FCF. It's also possible that capex intensity of the build phase steps DOWN, just given the size of this spend. What if 2030 capex is back to $220B? We are looking at run rate FCF of $230B annually which is $23 in fcf/share. This is the map that Jassy and Bezos see. Its a long term plan and it does not match with the short term-focused market. But if they execute, the map is highly compelling and does justify today's spend cycle. Note that the highest FCF ever for AMZN prior to this cycle was $26B. So we are looking to spend for 3-4 years to 9-10x FCF on the other side.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$AAOI signs $194.4M/year contract with Yuunan Germanium. This is for 2027 alone, with a 5 year contract. Given an implied total of ~$970M in InP substrates over 5 years (before price hikes) Hmm just some thoughts: - AOI laser capacity expansion seems bigger than what’s disclosed based on procurement patterns? 180K wafers seems like an extreme amount compared to what’s needed for lasers within their own transceivers… if they can consume all of that So maybe we’ll hear about a new UHP laser contracts in earnings, after $LITE announced a $5B contract. - read through on $AXTI is positive, given they’ll probably be #1 in InP substrates manufacturing scale in the future + have contracts with $LITE and $COHR. - positive AOI was able to secure capacity during the bottleneck More spend is probably the boogeyman in the AI trade, but it’s a good signal for earnings.

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $5.4B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

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