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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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AMD Earnings Review

AMD reported $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, with Data Center sales up 97% to $8.5 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $17 billion.

AMD $798B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@MaiusPartners

Maius on X

Compute and infrastructure expenses are expected to reach ~$13.0bn in Q4 as the $SPCX contract ramps. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to reach $18.6–20.3bn in Q4, up ~10–20% QoQ, with the competitive environment and holiday seasonality as potential headwinds. That puts revenue per compute dollar at ~1.5x. Meanwhile, roughly $80/$120bn of payments are against disclosed commitments in 2027/28 that help underwrite the entire global AI trade. The harder question is how quickly and profitably can API usage grow next year? Coding has been a clear winner. But sustaining growth requires either deeper usage within the industry and/or broader deployment across other high knowledge-intensive industries (finance, healthcare, legal). For the former, a ceiling is emerging, especially when sophisticated clients choose to train their own models to avoid the closed-source tax (e.g., Palantir). For the latter, those opportunities are large but much harder to capture, as turning them into reliable production systems requires data integration, domain-specific knowledge, corporate and regulatory approvals, and sometimes an entire organizational workflow redesign. Anthropic’s own $100m program to train 10,000 deployment engineers illustrates the work still required. However, wherever you look, the most sophisticated industry players choose to train their own models, e.g., Harvey AI using Kimi. Given this dynamic, it's not hard to paint a scenario where the“revenue per dollar of compute” metric continues to decline further in 2027 as industry capacity ramps, and hence one can see why the market is becoming extremely skeptical of the entire AI trade, given the labs are essentially underwriting the entire semiconductor industry at this stage. Where am I underestimating the upside: usage intensity (AGI? Humanoid Robots?), deployment speed in legacy industries? Or the entire cost curve?
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Counterpoint on $MRVL / $LITE acqusition: - "Every buyer that competes with Marvell will want a second, independent laser source". They identify $SIVE / Scintil Photonics as new CW / ELS capacity, with names like $CRDO as potential partners of Sivers. - "With Lumentum sold out for years, the overflow goes to whoever has merchant capacity" Already said this before, but we'll likely see some incentive to diversify laser sourcing. Sivers was cited here, and comes online with 100M lasers / external foundry capacity (2:1 external/internal target). To demonstrate the sheer scale on that, $AAOI exit 2026 laser capacity target was roughly ~24M/year (but different blend). - "Module makers move upstream" was also another second order effect. $JBL as one example is now heavily competing with the combined Lumentum + Marvell.... There's other players like $SMTC that are explicitly doing M&A for expanding laser capacity. I don't think the overall AI valuation crash is representative of individual company strength in the optical sector. There's very compelling opportunities in the laser bottleneck in the upcoming year that I believe markets are mispricing.

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BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

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