Sunday, November 1, 2026

Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook

Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.

CLMT $4.3B

Treasure Hunting Nov 1 3 clicks

Nov 1 MO $130B

Altria: Dutiful

Invariant 2 clicks

Nov 1 CRWD $248B

Sleep Well Portfolio (Oct 2026) - SWI#25 and #26 Adding Exposure to AI.

Sleep Well Investments 7 clicks

From X

@finphysnerd Nov 1 1 click

Myles on X

$AAPL is a pretty straightforward short here imo. Even ignoring the ridiculous valuation, it's become a flight to safety stock. If we get a proper market crash I can't see it continuing to hold up, meanwhile if we get a recover in the Q's we likely see a rotation out.

@finphysnerd Nov 1 1 click

Myles on X

$GRND has gotten cheap again. Short report concerns have been mostly shrugged off. It's still one of the best businesses in the world and now trading at 24x trailing earnings. Will be adding a bit and buying dips.

@BarbarianCap Nov 1 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

7/n $BSP CEO @luke10ferrari on Joys of Compounding @Buhrman_Rick ⁠@PaulBuser⁠ Sounds like a very thoughtful operator, not that he needs my opinion https://t.co/Xwd1Namvk8

@finphysnerd Nov 1 3 clicks

Myles on X

I think $HONA looks pretty attractive here. Some execution risk, but this is fundamentally a fantastic business that is experiencing short term issues, while experiencing spinoff selling and hedge fund degrossing. I think it's hard to lose too much money here.

@negligible_cap Nov 1 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

Wonder when $META will do the same for Muse. They obviously can sustain it a lot longer than SpaceX but Muse (as Zuck noted on their call) is very expensive Have seen sell side putting around $180 / year cost estimates per user in the free tier. Not cheap https://t.co/j1RqQzdZpZ

@ACapitalLP Nov 1 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…

@ACapitalLP Nov 1 1 click

A Capital on X

Why isn’t $GRND asymmetric into the 11/5 print? At $12.65, it’s ~10x ‘27 EBITDA pre-Freddie, alt data shows MAUs reaccelerating, and the call should clarify Freddie’s margin dilution. The Ithaca Holdings take-private of $BMBL and Zage’s $18 bid last year provide interesting valuation reference points… What’s the bear actually leaning on?

@ParadisLabs Nov 1 1 click

Paradis on X

Pretty crazy: $AAPL is now negatively correlated to $QQQ for the first time ever. The market is treating Apple as a safe haven from AI capex. https://t.co/KnzKu2Fpff

Portfolio Update October 2026

Portfolio returned over 15% in October, lifting cumulative gains to 103.5%, while adding 3i Group and increasing Floor & Decor and…

TGOPF $33BTSCO $18B

D Invests Nov 1 3 clicks

Agnico Eagle: Soaring Above The Peer Group

Agnico Eagle expects low-end 2026 guidance despite Barnat setbacks, while Hope Bay, Upper Beaver and Odyssey support production above 4…

AEM $84B

Taylor Dart Nov 1 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Amazon reported Q3 2026 net sales up 12% year over year to $201.9 billion, narrowly below the $202.3 billion consensus estimate.

AMZN $2.9T

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Oct 31 7 clicks

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

AAOI, Lumentum and Coherent 800G ramps, NVIDIA Rubin timing, and AMD, Intel and Arm server CPU demand frame an expert call on AI…

LITE $62BCOHR $41B

P Equity Research Oct 31 1 click

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T

Yiannis Zourmpanos Oct 31 2 clicks

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap

Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.

AMZN $2.9T

Steve Eisman Oct 30 5 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

BCO · long

Brinks CO

Brink’s $6.6 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of NCR Atleos underpins the long case, citing strategic and financial rationale.

BCO $4.2B

Value Investors Club May 8 1 click

Cerebras June 2026 Earnings

Cerebras faces shareholder criticism over $700,000 to $850,000 WSE-3 rack pricing, alleged packaging-yield losses and SRAM-based KV-cache…

CBRS $24B

Irrational Analysis Jun 24

Micron’s Profits Are Exploding. Is This the Top of the Cycle?

Micron’s $1.37 trillion valuation prices in durable HBM and AI-driven memory profits, despite Q3 guidance for $33.5 billion revenue and an…

MU $946B

Hated Moats Jun 23 1 click

Weekend Thoughts: Malone’s Born to Be Wired Book; Thoughts on Cable; Is CHTR Cheap?

Charter’s $11 billion to $8 billion capex plan may not be durable as copper-network upgrades face fiber competition, while CHTR shares have…

CHTR $13BCMCSA $84B

Base Hit Investing Jun 22

Apollo and what even is private credit?

Apollo’s Marc Rowan argues private-credit risk depends on underwriting, seniority, leverage and diversification, not whether a bank or fund…

APO $71B

scuttleblurb Jun 19 1 click

Wix: More Pain (Ticker: WIX)

Wix cut 2026 bookings guidance by $50 million and revenue by $25 million after layoffs and weaker agency-partner demand, deepening scrutiny…

WIX $3.2B

Emerging Moats Research Jun 19

The ISA Doesn't Matter Where It Counts

X86 and Arm matter less than GPU interconnects in AI server CPUs, with NVLink-C2C and Infinity Fabric defining the highest-value…

NVDA $5TINTC $348B

Chipstrat Jun 18

Precision AI

Adobe’s licensed vector data, corporate workflow integration and compliance framework could give it an edge in precision AI as frontier…

ADBE $96B

Bearstone Jun 18

The Great RPO Illusion: Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia, and the Neoclouds

OpenAI commitments can be counted as Microsoft RPO, Nvidia revenue and neocloud backlog, layering claims on the same underlying demand.

MSFT $3.9TNVDA $5T

Kakashii's Materials Jun 17

Intuit deep dive

Intuit’s investment case turns on whether AI strengthens or weakens QuickBooks and TurboTax moats across SMB accounting, payroll, payments…

INTU $89B

Global Outperformers Jun 17

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Myles on X

Myles on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Myles on X

Negligible Capital on X

A Capital on X

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