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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$TSEM remains one of our highest-conviction holdings, even after we trimmed the position in our 4Q26 rebalance. We wanted to keep Tower at its 6.1% portfolio weight despite a roughly 25% fall in its share price over the past quarter. To make room for new holdings, we trimmed the weight to 4.75% and banked some profits. With SpaceX ($SPCX) also becoming a larger holding, we are limiting further additions to avoid concentrating the portfolio in a few companies. Our confidence in Tower's technology remains strong. We think Tower's competitive advantage comes from combining chips that send and receive data using light with the electronic chips that drive and control them. Next-generation optical connections require these components to exchange more data within a smaller space. Hybrid bonding achieves this by joining the chips through densely packed electrical connections that move large amounts of data in a compact package. In our view, Tower's capabilities here are effectively unmatched among Western suppliers. Tower has also added manufacturing capacity more successfully than we expected. It can fulfill more customer orders itself, leaving less business for $GFS. Customers have less reason to switch to a supplier whose technology they consider weaker when Tower can meet their needs, so the capacity expansion strengthens our Tower thesis and weakens the case for competitors that rely on orders Tower cannot accommodate.
@convequity 3 clicks

Convequity on X

We think memory consumption can keep growing while memory prices fall. Memory prices depend on how quickly supply grows, not only on how much demand grows. Existing suppliers and Chinese manufacturers are expanding production. If new production and sales of distributor stock outpace demand, consumption can rise while prices decline. Chinese manufacturers reportedly hold enough lithography machines for three to four years of expansion. That stockpile could allow them to keep adding production capacity even if sanctions block further deliveries of the affected machines. Reports of large distributor inventories and falling spot prices for DDR memory point to a further source of supply. We have not verified the inventory estimates. If distributors start selling down the stock they accumulated in anticipation of shortages, that adds to supply and puts further pressure on prices. We hold SanDisk ($SNDK) for storage and high-bandwidth flash (HBF). HBF could let flash deliver data fast enough for more demanding computing tasks. That gives us a way to benefit from growing data demand without relying entirely on high memory prices.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click
T · short

At&t INC

AT&T’s stalled deleveraging and share repurchase case has prompted a bearish turn on the telecom stock.

T $144B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

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