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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

$NVDA's falling unit share in China's data-centre AI chip market overstates how much business Nvidia has lost to Huawei. Three things explain why. 1. IDC counts units, and did not say whether that count includes the Blackwell parts barred from China and reportedly smuggled in. Chinese demand also reaches Nvidia outside China. Xiaomi or ByteDance rents a Blackwell cluster in Malaysia from a local cloud provider. That is Nvidia revenue from a Chinese buyer that never appears as a Chinese unit. So Nvidia's share of what Chinese buyers spend on AI compute is higher than its share of counted units. 2. Huawei's volume growth is real, and memory explains how. Huawei cannot get enough stacked high-bandwidth memory, the HBM that top-end AI chips need. The 910C ran on an older grade, HBM2E, that Huawei had been able to mass procure. The new 950PR uses lower-bandwidth single stack memory instead of stacked HBM, so the 950PR does not depend on HBM supply. Each chip moves data more slowly, and Huawei can make many more of them. Also, we expect 950DT to ramp up quite quickly alongside 960DT coming earlier in 1Q27 instead of original 4Q27 timeline due to Huawei's own HBM variant that is able to ramp up production quicker. 3. So Nvidia's drop is not Nvidia failing to supply China. In our view, it has three causes: US export rules that bar its best parts, Beijing promoting domestic chips and requiring approval to import Nvidia's compliant ones, and a 950 series that beats the 910 series it replaces and is production-wise attractive for model serving. For Nvidia, where Chinese compute spend goes matters more than the China unit count, and much of it still goes to Nvidia hardware, in China or in Malaysia.
@aleabitoreddit 4 clicks

Serenity on X

$TSM released earnings today. I was more curious about commentary given recent the market panic. For analyst Q&A rounds: Q: Citi explicitly challenged TSMC on AI financing, HBM, CoWoS, lasers and the risk of overbuilding capacity A: $TSM assessed CSP capex, DC construction conditions, customer financial conditions, and supply of critical components. Management's conclusion is still that "demand exceeds supply". As well as that AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%+ CAGR projection through 2029. This is a more meaningful statement since it addresses some concerns regarding recent selloff. Q: JPM asked if wafer supply could be tighter in 2027 than in 2026 (demand visibility) A: Wei (Chairman/CEO) stated $TSM even sends staff to verify DC construction progress on site. And after assessing all the factors, TSMC believes gap between supply and demand remains substantial. It could not determine whether the extent of the gap given customers continues to increase demand. Q: On pricing power: A: Wei responded that there is "no ceiling on TSMC's profitability" but that profits will not surge dramatically overnight. (Source: NextApple, Taiwanese press) Regarding earnings, very strong: as usual - TSMC record profits of $23.6B (68% Y/Y growth), and revenue jumping to $46.72B, beating expectations. - Q4 Guidance was $52.3-$54.3B revenue off 65-67% gross margins. TLDR: - No signs of any slowdown or collapse as AI demand far exceeds supply for foreseeable future. $TSM is probably the fundamental proxy/canary to how the overall AI semi trade is doing. - On financing concerns and fear of overcapacity showing up in semiconductor demand: $TSM specifically examined the risks investors are concerned about now and assessment still points to unmet demand. During the Q&A session, Wei said AI demand was "very, extremely strong," with absolutely no signs of slowing. Underlying AI semi supply chain growth is healthier than recent market panic suggest.
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations). Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities. If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement). With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

It's interesting to see Elon interacting with finance X accounts out of the blue. Then amplifying $CRWV financing concerns, Chinese memory flooding, to AI investors being gamblers recently. With $SPCX and $TSLA, I do think Elon is a visionary but from how it looks from the outside... Amplifying concerns about competitors does make their financing more difficult as a self-fulfilling prophecy. And multiple posts about Chinese memory flooding after calling Samsung/SK Hynix pricing extortion does harm these supplier valuations... The economic incentives of doing so probably benefits Tesla/SpaceX more in the long run, even if everything goes down together. There's merit to a lot of things (I've been voicing Coreweave concerns about debt interest + rate hikes for the longest time...). But much like high end memory flooding to nuances of "No crying in a Casino" when the $AVGO CEO comments were regarding OpenAI ARR datapoints... were missed. You can throw rocks at others when a glass house is propped up by passive index flows

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CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $12B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

ServiceNow Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ServiceNow’s Q3 revenue rose 20.5% to $4.11 billion, while non-GAAP EPS missed consensus and fourth-quarter cRPO growth guidance slowed to…

NOW $110B
Cestrian Capital Research 2 clicks

Meta: A Clearer Roadmap

Meta's non-cancelable commitments reached $455 billion as FY26 capex approaches $140 billion, driving expense growth and 700-basis-point…

META $1.6T
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

Why So Much Copper?

Amphenol and other copper-connectivity suppliers benefit as copper remains essential inside AI racks, where low-voltage, high-current power…

APH $196B
Jimmy's Journal 3 clicks

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