Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Back to today

From X

@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Right now AI diffusion is happening faster in enterprise than in consumer. $MSFT is effectively the only pure play on enterprise AI diffusion. It’s salesforce, FDE and partner ecosystem, and the security, orchestration and governance capabilities of its platform uniquely unlock new AI TAM in traditional conservative enterprises. My prediction that M365 commercial would accelerate to >20% growth may come true next quarter, based on tonight’s guide. Sooner than I expected*. $MSFT will now have Azure and M365, which are 2/3 of revenue, growing >50% and >20%. And both stand a good chance of accelerating through the year: more copilot rollout, consumption pricing, and Autopilot for M365, and more capacity coming online and price increases for Azure. I still think $24-25 EPS is achievable in CY27 which would make $MSFT <22x fwd PE, even after a nice run. *helped by re-segmenting which added GitHub! But I think will be true this year regardless.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

My prediction that M365 commercial would accelerate to >20% growth may come true next quarter, based on tonight’s guide. Sooner than I expected*. Right now AI diffusion is happening faster in enterprise than in consumer. $MSFT is effectively the only pure play on enterprise AI diffusion. It’s salesforce, FDE and partner ecosystem, and the security, orchestration and governance capabilities of its platform uniquely unlock new AI TAM in traditional conservative enterprises. $MSFT will now have Azure and M365, which are 2/3 of revenue, growing >50% and >20%. And both stand a good chance of accelerating through the year: more copilot rollout, consumption pricing, and Autopilot for M365, and more capacity coming online and price increases for Azure. I still think $24-25 EPS is achievable in CY27 which would make $MSFT <22x fwd PE, even after a nice run. *helped by re-segmenting which added GitHub! But I think will be true this year regardless.
@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

Initial notes on $MRVL's rumoured $LITE acquisition: 1. Why?! - $LITE's CEO has said they're sold out into 2029. So do management think the InP laser shortage is shorter than what their orders suggest? Need more clarity on why Lumentum would green light this. - With lasers sold out into 2029, I think owning the fab might be the only way $MRVL can guarantee supply for FY28 growth. So maybe Marvell and Lumentum have different reads on the InP laser shortage? 2. This has to be mostly stock. - $MRVL has ~$3.9B cash vs. $5.0B debt. Combined run-rate EBITDA is circa $7-7.5B (my numbers), so I think staying investment grade caps new debt at around $15-20B. - At a ~30% premium that leaves $85-90B+ paid in stock, with $LITE holders owning ~30% of the combined company. - I feel that’s a lot of Marvell to hand over. 3. I think the strategy is much better than the reaction. - $MRVL are essentially buying the part of the optical link that survives the move to CPO which is a pretty smart hedge on their own DSP franchise. - Marvell announced Inphi around 6 years ago (~$10B in cash + stock), and that deal built the core of MRVL's optics business. - This is basically the same move just one layer down, from DSP to laser, stacked on Celestial AI. - Probably a good signal that Marvell are running the same optics playbook again? 4. Dilution. - $MRVL trades on about 52x run rate EPS. - $LITE is about 60x on its FQ1 guide at tonight's AH price and about 70x with a 30% premium. - That's ~15% dilutive to Marvell's run-rate EPS (my rough napkin math number) assuming a 30% premium, ~$17.5B of new debt at ~5%, and the rest in stock at $228. (Again, very rough numbers). - It only turns accretive if Lumentum keeps outgrowing Marvell at today's guided rates (+24% q/q vs +15%) for another five or six quarters. - I think that's achievable while the laser shortage lasts, but I feel the whole deal ends up being a bet on how long that is. 5. Fewer lasers on the open market. - If LITE's output gets prioritised for $NVDA and Marvell's own modules, everyone else buying LITE EMLs and CW lasers gets tighter allocation. - I think that's bullish for laser pricing at $COHR and for other laser sources like $SIVE (lol). - Feels like the module makers that depend on LITE lasers are the quiet losers. 6. Channel conflict. - Marvell is the leading DSP supplier to 800G/1.6T module makers, and LITE already sells its own modules through Cloud Light. - I think Innolight and Eoptolink start shifting DSP share to $AVGO and $CRDO? - I feel hyperscalers will push harder to second-source lasers from $COHR.

Investor Letters

All letters

Danaher’s robotics era

Danaher’s new CEO paired a Q3 beat and raised EPS outlook with a 2027 4%-5% organic-growth starting point, while pitching AI-enabled…

DHR $163B
Best Anchor Stocks 1 click

Meta Earnings, Muse and the Frontier, Musebook

Meta’s earnings hinge on whether investors back Zuckerberg’s Muse vision and the compute spending required to build it.

META $1.6T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 1 click
NEXPF · long

Nexi SpA

Nexi, continental Europe’s largest merchant acquirer, is presented as a long investment using normalized EPS and EBIT that exclude…

NEXPF $5.9B
Value Investors Club

The Last Bidder

Aquarian won Brighthouse Financial despite a lower bid after higher offers failed to secure reinsurance for its legacy liabilities and thin…

BHF $2.5B
Mispriced Assets

Altria: Gradient

Altria's Q2 2026 smokeables earnings rose 2.4% as cigarette volume declines eased, while oral tobacco revenue fell 5.2% and volumes fell…

MO $130B
Invariant

Netflix

Netflix's 46% decline leaves it above a 4% forward free-cash-flow yield, as subscription pricing and a $3 billion advertising business…

NFLX $511B
Behind the Balance Sheet 1 click

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 69 of 271

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

190 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.