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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Wow - @ryancohen was right. These are not the actions of a value investor. This is hardcore trading. Is there any recommendation @michaeljburry has actually held for longer than a month (or that has actually increased in value) since this newsletter has started??? $GME would have counted in both categories if he had actually held.... Just brutal performance since inception. Maybe this is why he has refused to publicly release his funds performance? I think Burry is the only "big name" investor where the public has no clue what the actual performance of the fund was since inception. Crazy lack of transparency.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$AVGO's Hock Tan is right that capital is now the constraint on AI, and that is healthy. The $60bn banks are placing for Anthropic's lease of $GOOGL's TPUs shows how it gets eased: by moving risk, not reducing it. We read his two remarks as cause and effect: tokens are not yet earning a return, so capital is expensive. That brake stops a buildout outrunning its returns. The $42bn senior slice leans on Broadcom's A-minus credit through a partial guarantee of the chips' residual value. The rest is expected to wait for Anthropic's IPO. The brake works where Broadcom's credit stops. On the guaranteed slice the risk has moved, not shrunk: out of a loan spread lenders would price, into a chip deal the seller priced, onto a balance sheet already long the same cycle, where it is too small to move the shares. Google sits on the same outcome three times: Anthropic shareholder, TPU lessor, Broadcom's customer for those chips. The IPO junior lenders are waiting for also puts a public price on Google's stake, and Broadcom's guarantee is safest if it goes well. Spreading risk only reduces it when the holders are diversified against it. None here are. Each piece is ordinary. The total is capital arriving ahead of proven returns, and two of the market's largest companies carrying more of one lab's downside than their labels suggest.

Investor Letters

All letters

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 11 clicks

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